Isoko ry’uburyo bwo kubika inguvu z’amabateri ryatanguye igice caryo kinini c’iterambere hagati ya 2020 na 2022, ryihuta kuva ku gukoresha ubuhinga busanzwe-mu ntango z’imyaka ya 2010 gushika aho rihinduka rimwe mu buhinga bw’inguvu zisukuye butera imbere cane. Ivyuma bikoreshwa kw’isi yose vyavuye ku 27 GWh mu 2022 bishika kuri 74 GWh mu 2023-ukwiyongera kw’ibice 174% kwagaragaje ihinduka rigaragara mu nzira y’isoko.
Igihe c'iterambere ry'isoko
Isoko ryo kubika inguvu za bateri ntiryaronse ukuroranirwa kw’ijoro rimwe. Ukwaguka kwayo kwakurikiye uburyo butandukanye mu bihe bitatu vy’ingenzi, kimwe cose kikaba kigaragazwa n’ibintu bitandukanye bituma umuntu afata ingingo.
Icigwa ca mbere c'iterambere (2010-2019)
Umushinge w’isoko ry’ubu waradutse buhoro buhoro mu myaka ya 2010. Mu mwaka w’2010, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zari zifise ubushobozi bwo kubika amabateri 59 MW gusa, zivuye mu bibanza indwi vyashizweho. Ico gihe ca mbere cari kigamije kwemeza ko ubuhinga bushobora gukoreshwa no gushinga amategeko y’ishimikiro.
Gushiramwo amahera mu buhinga bw’ibinyabiziga bikoresha umuyagankuba muri iyi myaka cumi vyagaragaye ko ari ngirakamaro cane ku bijanye no kubika ibintu bihagaze. Inganda z'imiduga zisunika amabateri ya litiyumu -ion vyatumye habaho uguhingura n'ugugabanya ibiciro vyaciye bifasha ibikorwa vy'uruzitiro-. Nissan Leaf yaje mu 2010 yerekanye ko EV ishobora gukoreshwa mu isoko ryinshi, bituma habaho ubuhinga bushasha bwa bateri bwatumye habaho ububiko bw'inguvu.
Mu mwaka w’2015, ubushobozi bwa Amerika bwari bwarakuze bushika ku 351 MW mu bibanza 49-ivyo bikaba ari ugusimbuka gukomeye, ariko bikaba bikiri isoko rishasha. Igiciro c’amabateri ya litiyumu-ion caragabanutse 80% hagati ya 2010 na 2019, kigera ku madolari nka 200/kWh. Ukwo kugabanya igiciro kwahinduye ubutunzi, bituma imigambi minini- yo kubika ibintu irushiriza kuba nziza.
Icigwa co kwihutisha (2020-2023)
Isoko ryahindukiye rija mu rwego rwo hejuru nko muri 2020, rirongowe n’inguvu zihurikiye hamwe. Gukoresha inguvu zishobora gusubirwamwo vyarateye imbere cane, bituma habaho ugushaka vyihutirwa kw’ububiko kugira ngo haboneke ukuntu ibintu bigenda bihinduka. Infashanyo y’amategeko yarakomeye kw’isi yose, aho ibihugu vyemeza ko ububiko ari ibikorwa remezo vy’ingenzi aho gukoresha ubuhinga bwo kugerageza.
Ubushobozi bw’inguvu bwarongerekanye incuro 10 hagati y’umwaka wa 2018 n’uwa 2020 gusa. Ubushobozi bwa Amerika bwashitse kuri 1.756 MW mu mpera z’umwaka w’2020, hanyuma bubandanya kuzamuka cane. Ishoramari mu kubika inguvu z’amabateri ryarengeye amadolari 20 miliyaridi mu mwaka w’2022, nk’uko bivugwa n’ishirahamwe mpuzamakungu ry’inguvu.
Umwaka wa 2022 wari umwaka w’ihinduka rikomeye. Ikoreshwa ry’amabateri y’urugero rw’uruzitiro kw’isi yose -ryiyongereye hafi incuro zitatu mu 2023, rishika kuri 35,82 GW/87,69 GWh. Ivyo vyihuta vyerekanye ibintu vyinshi vyari bihuye icarimwe: ugucika kw’ibiciro vy’amabateri, ivyipfuzo vyihutirwa vy’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, ivyipfuzo vyo guhindura uruja n’uruza rw’amashanyarazi, n’ukwizigirwa kw’ubuhinga bwa none.
Inzira y’ubushobozi bw’Uburayi yerekana iyo nkura itera imbere cane. Aka karere karagutse kuva kuri 0,2 GWh mu 2014 gushika kuri 35,9 GWh mu 2023, aho umurongo w’iterambere ugenda urushiriza guhagarara inyuma ya 2020. Mu mpera z’umwaka wa 2024, Uburayi bwari bwashitse ku 61 GWh z’ubushobozi bwashizweho.
Icigwa c'ukwaguka (2024-ubu)
Iterambere ry’ubu ryari ritangaje cane. Amerika yongeyeko ubushobozi bushasha burenga 9 GW gushika mu kwezi kwa 11 2024, bituma ubushobozi bwo gukora burengeye 26 GW. Kugira ngo umuntu abone ibintu mu buryo bubereye, ivyo bigereranya ibirenze ubushobozi bwose bwo kw’isi yose bwariho imyaka mikeyi gusa imbere y’aho.
Ubushinwa bwaje nk’inguvu zihambaye, bushizeho ubushobozi bushasha burenga 22 GW mu mwaka w’2023 gusa. Kuva muri Rusama 2025, amashanyarazi y’Ubushinwa yashitse kuri 106,9 GW na 240,3 GWh. California na Texas nizo zirongoye ibikorwa vya Amerika, California ikoresha 12.5 GW na Texas irenga 8 GW mu 2024.
Ivyo gukoresha kw’isi yose mu 2024 vyashitse kuri 41,84 GW/104,67 GWh, kandi ibiharuro vyerekana ko iyo nzira izobandanya. Agaciro k’isoko, kagereranywa n’amadolari 25-76 miliyaridi mu 2024 bivanye n’uburyo bwo gupima, ntivyerekana gusa umubare w’ibikoresho ariko n’ukwiyongera kw’ubuhinga n’ubushobozi bw’inguvu ku gushiramwo.
Ni igiki gituma iyo nzira yo gukura
Ibintu bitari bike bifitaniye isano birasigura igihe isoko ryihuta be n’igituma ryihuta.
Ingufu zishobora gusubirwamwo zikenewe
Ubushobozi bwo gukoresha umuyaga n’izuba bwarateye imbere kw’isi yose, bituma habaho ukudahuza kw’ishimikiro hagati y’igihe co gukora n’ingene umuntu akoresha. Izuba ritanga amasaha y’umuhingamo ariko risabwa ryinshi cane mu masaha y’umugoroba. Ivyaruka vy’umuyaga birahinduka bitari vyo. Ukwo guhinduka kwatumye abakoresha amazi n’amashanyarazi barondera inyishu zo kubika inguvu zishobora guhindura inguvu mu gihe.
Mu mwaka w’2023, amashanyarazi ashobora gusubirwamwo ni yo yari afise hafi 30% vy’amashanyarazi akoreshwa kw’isi yose. Igihe cose umuntu yongerekana kw’ijana mu bijanye n’uguhinduka kw’ibintu bishobora gusubirwamwo, bituma habaho agaciro k’ububiko. Abakoresha uruja n’uruza rw’amashanyarazi bavumbuye yuko amabateri ashobora kwishura mu masegonda makeyi ku bijanye n’ugutunganya incuro, vyihuta cane kuruta amasoko ya kera y’uruja n’uruza.
Ingorane y’ukwifatanya yarabaye ikaze cane cane mu turere dufise intumbero zikomeye zishobora gusubirwamwo. Ivyo vyabaye muri Californie biratanga akarorero k’ivyo. Ukwinjira kw'izuba kwinshi kwatumye haba ingorane y'"duck curve"-ugutera imbere kw'umugoroba mu bijanye n'umuzigo w'urusenga uko umusaruro w'izuba ugabanuka mu gihe ugusaba kwiyongera. Ububiko bwa bateri bwatanze umuti, bituma California ikoresha ibice birenga ica kabiri c’ubushobozi bwose bwo kubika muri Amerika gushika mu ntango za 2024.
Ikoranabuhanga n'Iterambere ry'Ibiciro
Ubuhinga bwa bateri bwarateye imbere ku bintu vyinshi icarimwe. Ubwinshi bw’inguvu bwarongerekanye, bituma haba ubushobozi bwo kubika vyinshi mu bibanza bitobito. Ubuzima bw'ingendo bwaragutse, butera imbere ubutunzi mu gukwiragiza ibiciro vy'umutungo kamere mu nzinguzingu nyinshi zo kwishura-gusohoka. Uburyo bwo gucungera umutekano bwarateye imbere mu kwishura ku bintu vyabaye kera, bugatorera umuti ivyiyumviro vy’abanyagihugu ku bijanye n’ibikoresho bininibinini.
Inzira z’ibiciro zagaragaye ko ari zo zifata ingingo. Ibiciro vy’amabateri ya lithium-ion vyagabanutse kuva ku madolari 1.200/kWh mu 2010 bishika ku madolari 132/kWh mu 2021-igabanuka rirenga 89%. Ikigo mpuzamakungu c’inguvu zishobora gusubirwamwo cavuze ko igiciro cose c’inguvu zishobora gusubirwamwo kizogabanuka ku rugero rwa 50%, igiciro c’amabateri na co kizogabanuka ku rugero rwo hejuru rwa 60% mu mwaka w’2030 ugereranyije n’ivyo mu mwaka w’2016.
Impinduka mu buhinga bwa shimi mu buhinga bwa litiyumu-ion zatumye abantu barushiriza kwihutisha kwemerwa. Bateri za lithium iron phosphate (LFP) zaronse umugabane w’isoko vyihuta, zishika kuri 80% vy’ibikoresho bishasha vyakoreshejwe mu 2023. LFP yatanga ibiranga umutekano mwiza, ubuzima buramba bw’ingendo, n’ibiciro bitoyi kuruta amabateri ashingiye kuri nickel-, naho nyene afise uburemere bukeyi bw’inguvu. Ivyo bihugu -vyagaragaye ko vyemewe ku bikorwa bihagaze aho ubukene bw'ahantu bufise akamaro gatoyi kuruta ku binyabiziga.
Urugero rw'uguhingura rwaremye -gukomeza ukugabanya ibiciro. Uko ubuhinga bwo gukora EV bwagenda buragwira kw’isi yose, ubushobozi bwo gukora amabateri bwaragwiriye cane. Imigambi y’ububiko buhagaze yarahungukiye muri ukwo kwaguka kw’ubushobozi be n’ugukura kw’uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho vyavuyemwo.
Infashanyo y'amategeko n'amabwirizwa
Ibikorwa vya Leta vyahinduye igihe c'isoko cane. Itegeko ry’Amerika ryo kugabanya Inflation ryo mu 2022 ryatanze imisoro myinshi ku migambi y’ububiko bwigenga, rihindura cane ubutunzi bw’imigambi. Iryo hinduka ry’ingingo ngenderwako ryatumye habaho iterambere ry’abasirikare bo muri Amerika guhera mu 2023.
Ubushinwa bwashize mu ngiro amategeko y’inguvu zishobora gusubirwamwo zarimwo ibisabwa vyo kubika, ivyo bikaba vyatumye habaho ugukoresha cane. Naho amahinduka y’ingingo mfatirwako muri Ruhuhuma 2025 yari afise intumbero yo kugabanya amabanga, inguvu zikomeye zarabandanije. Ubuhinde bwemeje umugambi wo gufasha mu kwezi kwa Nzero 2023, ugamije gutanga 4.000 MWh z’imigambi mu 2031.
Ingamba z’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi, harimwo n’umugambi w’inganda w’Isezerano ry’Ivyatsi bitotahaye be n’ugutanga infashanyo za REPowerEU, vyatumye vyihuta gukoreshwa mu bihugu vyose bigize umuryango. Porogarama y’Ubudage yo gutera imbere mu bijanye n’uruja n’uruza, yatangujwe muri Gahunda y’Igihugu y’Iterambere ry’Uruja n’uruza rw’amazi yo mu 2019, yatanze akarorero k’infashanyo yihariye ku bijanye n’ububiko bw’urugero rw’ugutanga amakuru-.
Inzego z’amategeko zarateye imbere kugira ngo zimenye ibiranga ububiko bidasanzwe. Amategeko ya kera yafata amabateri nk'amageneratore, bituma habaho ukudakora neza. Isoko ryavuguruwe ryatumye ububiko bugira uruhara mu migenderanire myinshi y’amahera-ubukemurampaka bw’inguvu, ugutunganya incuro, amasoko y’ubushobozi, n’ibikorwa vy’inyongera-bituma ubutunzi bw’umugambi butera imbere cane.
Ivy'ingenzi vyo guhindura uruzitiro rwa none
Ibikorwa remezo vy’ububasha bishaje mu bihugu vyateye imbere vyasaba ishoramari ryinshi ataco bimaze gusubira gukorana. Abakoresha uruja n’uruza rw’amazi baremeye ko gukoresha ububiko bw’ibintu bishobora gusubiza inyuma canke gukuraho ugusubiramwo ivy’ugutanga amakuru bizimvye, bikaba bitanga ibikorwa bingana n’ivyo kugiciro gito.
Ivyerekeye ukwihangana inyuma y’uguzima kw’amashanyarazi gukomeye vyatumye ububiko bugira akamaro kanini. Inkubi y'umuyaga yo muri Texas yo muri Gashyantare 2021 yerekanye ubugoyagoye mu ruvyaro rwa kera. Uguzimya kw'umuyagankuba muri California muri 2020 mu gihe c'ubushuhe bwagaragaje ubushobozi buke. Ububiko bwa bateri bwatanga igihe co gukoresha vyihuta ugereranyije n’ivyo gukoresha bisanzwe, bikaba vyatuma habaho iterambere ryihuta ryo kwizigirwa.
Ivyiyumviro vy’uruganda rw’amashanyarazi vy’ubuhinga bwa none vyaronse ugukwegwakwegwa, bikoranya ibikoresho vy’ububiko vyatanzwe kugira ngo bihe ibikorwa vy’uruja n’uruza. Iyi nzira yafunguye agaciro kava ku bikoresho bitobito vyari bifise ubukene bw'isoko, vyagura isoko ry'ibintu bishobora gushikirizwa birenze imigambi y'ubuhinga-.
Intumbero z'ubutunzi
Ubutunzi bw'umugambi bwajabutse ibipimo bikomeye mu ntango z'imyaka ya 2020. Igiciro c’ububiko cari munsi y’ibikoresho vy’amazi vy’amasaha abiri, bituma amabateri aba ari yo mahitamwo y’ubutunzi ku bushobozi bwo hejuru mu masoko menshi.
Imigambi y'urugero rw'ubuhinga-yashitse ku nyungu zakwegereye umutungo munini. Mu gice ca mbere c’umwaka w’2024, amashirahamwe yo muri Amerika yarasezeranye kurangiza imigambi 35 y’amabateri yigenga afise agaciro k’amadolari 11,45 miliyaridi. Ivyo vyemezo vy’umutungo vyerekana ukwizigira mu bijanye n’ugutegekanya inyungu n’ugukora kw’ubuhinga.
Amahirwe yo guteranya amafaranga yarateye imbere uko amasoko yagenda arakura. Imigambi ya mbere yari ishingiye ahanini ku kwishura kw’amategeko agenga incuro, ariko ukuzura kw’isoko kwagabanya ayo mahera. Abakoresha barahindutse mu masoko y’ubushobozi, ubukemurampaka bw’inguvu, n’amasezerano yo gufata amasezerano. Porogaramu ikomeye yo gucunga inguvu yashoboje gukoresha neza igihe nyaco mu migende myinshi y'agaciro, bituma inyungu zigenda neza.
Ingano y'isoko
Ivyiyumviro vy’agaciro k’isoko biriho ubu biratandukanye bivanye n’uburyo n’urugero, ariko vyose vyerekana ko hariho ukwaguka gukomeye.
Isoko ry’ububiko bw’inguvu z’amabateri kw’isi yose ryari hagati ya miliyari 25 n’amadolari 76 mu 2024, bivanye n’uko ingero zishingiye ku rugero rw’ubuhinga- gusa canke zirimwo ibikorwa vyose. Mu mwaka w’2030, ibiharuro bizoba biva kuri miliyari 105 z’amadolari gushika kuri miliyari 172 z’amadolari, n’iterambere ry’umwaka ry’abantu hagati ya 15,8% na 26,7%.
Turavye imbere, ibiharuro bizoshika ku madolari 170-550 miliyaridi mu 2035. Ivyo bimenyetso vyinshi vyerekana ukudakeka ku bijanye n’ugukomeza kw’ingingo mfatirwako, uguhungabana kw’ubuhinga, n’uguhinduka kw’amahiganwa. Ivyiyumviro vy'ubudahemuka vyiyumvira gushirwaho buhoro buhoro bihuye n'ivyongeweko bishobora gusubirwamwo. Ivyiyumviro vy’ubukazi vyerekana ko ububiko buzoba hose nk’ibikorwa remezo vyo gutanga amakuru.
Ivyiyumviro vy’ubushobozi birakurikirana nk’ukwo nyene gushika hejuru. Ivyuma bikoreshwa kw’isi yose bitegerezwa gukura kuva ku 74 GWh mu 2023 gushika ku 400-500 GWh ku mwaka mu 2030. Ubushobozi bwose bushobora gushika kuri 550 GWh/1.550 GWh mu 2030, ni ukuvuga iterambere ry’incuro hafi umunani240.
Isoko rya Amerika ryonyene ritegerezwa gukura kuva ku madolari 107 miliyaridi mu 2024 gushika ku madolari 1,49 trillions mu 2034, naho uwo mubare ugaragaza urwego rwose rwo kubika inguvu harimwo n’ubuhinga burenze amabateri. Amerika ifise umuyoboro wa 143 GW w'imigambi yo kubika inguvu zitari izo mu mazi gushika mu 2030.
Ukwiyongera kw'akarere
Uburyo bwo gukura buratandukanye cane bivanye n’aho umuntu aba, bushingiye ku ngingo ngenderwako zo mu karere, imiterere y’isoko ry’amashanyarazi, n’ukuntu ibikoresho bishobora gusubirwamwo bibonetse.
Uburongozi bwa Aziya-Pasifike
Aziya{0}}Pasifike ni yo iganzwa n’ubushobozi n’ibipimo vy’iterambere. Aka karere kafise hafi 50% vy’isoko ry’isi yose mu 2024, n’ibiharuro vyerekana ko rizobandanya kwaguka ku 18-20% CAGR gushika mu 2030.
Urugero rw’Ubushinwa rurarengeye ayandi masoko. Igihugu congeyeko ubushobozi bw’amabateri mu mwaka w’2023 kurusha isi yose hamwe. Ivyagezwe vya Leta bisaba ububiko bufatanijwe n’imigambi mishasha y’umuyaga n’izuba vyatumye habaho ugushiraho, naho nyene amahinduka aherutse gukorwa mu ngingo mfatirwako afise intumbero yo guhindura uburyo bushingiye ku masoko-.
Ubuhinde bugereranya ubushobozi bwinshi cane. Ukwiyongera kw’abasaba amashanyarazi, intumbero zikomeye zishobora gusubirwamwo, n’infashanyo ya Leta biciye mu migambi nka Viability Gap Funding bituma Ubuhinde butera imbere vyihuta. Isoko ry’ububiko ry’igihugu ririko rirakura ariko ryiteguriye kwihuta uko ibiciro bigabanuka kandi n’ugushiramwo uruja n’uruza rw’amashanyarazi bikenewe cane.
Ubuyapani na Koreya y’Epfo zikurikirana ugushiraho ububiko kugira ngo zitere imbere umutekano w’inguvu no gushigikira ubufatanye bushobora gusubirwamwo. Icamunara ry’Isoko ry’Inguvu ryo Gukuraho Ivyuma vy’Igihe Kirekire ry’Ubuyapani ritanga icemezo co gusubirana igiciro kidahinduka mu myaka 20 ku migambi yo kubika, bikaba bitanga icizigiro ku bategura. Ubushobozi burenga 2,4 GW bwatanzwe mu masoko aherutse gutangwa.
Ukwaguka kwa Amerika y'Uburaruko
Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zarateye imbere cane kuva mu 2020 gushika ubu. California yagumye ari uburongozi n’ubushobozi burenga 50% bw’igihugu, bushingiye ku mategeko y’ubumwe bushobora gusubirwamwo n’intumbero zo gutanga ubushobozi. Texas ni yo yaje ku mwanya wa kabiri, ikaba yungukira ku bintu vyinshi bishobora gusubirwamwo, ivyipfuzo vyo kwizigirwa vy’uruja n’uruza inyuma y’uguzima kw’amashanyarazi, n’imiterere y’isoko itagira amategeko ishobora gutuma abacuruzi bashobora kubika imigambi.
Amategeko ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika yahinduye cane ugushirwaho. Itegeko ryo kugabanya inflation ry’umusoro w’ishoramari ry’ububiko bwigenga ryahinduye ubutunzi bw’imigambi guhera mu 2023. Ingamba z’Igisata c’Inguvu zatanze amadolari arenga miliyari 3 mu 2024 kugira ngo zitere imbere mu gukora amabateri yo mu gihugu no guteza imbere abakozi.
Canada yarakurikiye gukoresha ububiko n’ubwitonzi bwinshi ariko yerekanye igikorwa kigenda kirushirizaho. Imigambi yibanze ku nzira z’imirongo mito mito y’abanyagihugu bo kure no gufasha mu gusubiramwo ibintu bishobora gusubirwamwo mu ntara zifise intumbero zikomeye zo gukuraho ivyuka bihumanya ikirere.
Iterambere ry'Uburaya
Isoko ry’i Buraya ryarateye imbere mu buryo butaringaniye mu bihugu vyose bigize umuryango. Ubudage, Ubutaliyano, n’Ubwongereza vyose hamwe vyari bifise 68% vy’ubushobozi bw’Uburayi gushika mu 2023, ariko ibindi bihugu vyarihuse kubirungika mu nyuma.
Ubudage bwarongoye uburyo bwo kubamwo busanzwe, n’ibikoresho birenga miliyoni 2 mu nzu-bishizweho vyose hamwe 15 GW na 22 GWh muri Nzero 2025. Imigambi y’ubuhinga-na yo nyene yaragutse, ishigikiwe na porogarama nka Grid Booster.
Ubwongereza bwashitse ku nguvu 4,6 GW n’ubushobozi bwa nguvu 5,9 GWh muri Ruheshi 2024, buva kuri 2,4 GW/2,6 GWh mu 2022.
Ingamba zo ku rwego rwa EU- zatumye haba ukwaguka guhujwe. Itegeko ry’inganda z’ubuhinga bwa none (Net-Zero Industry Act) n’infashanyo y’amasezerano y’ubuhinga bwa none (Green Deal) vyatumye ubushobozi bwo gukora ibintu vyihuta, bigamije kugabanya ukuntu umuntu yizigira ibintu biva hanze biva mu Bushinwa. Amategeko y'isoko agezweho yatumye habaho uruhara mu bubiko bw'ibintu bijabuka -imipaka.
Amasoko ariko arakura
Akarere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati na Afirika kagaragaje iterambere ryihuse kuva ku kibanza gitoyi, bitegekanijwe kwaguka ku rugero rwa 19,5% CAGR gushika mu 2030. Arabiya Saudite yashinze imigambi y’amasaha ya gigawatt-, ibona ko ububiko ari ngirakamaro mu guhindura ubutunzi burengeye amavuta.
Afirika y’Epfo yashizeho ububiko kugira ngo ishobore gutorera umuti ubukene bw’amashanyarazi bugumaho no gushigikira ubufatanye bw’amashanyarazi bushobora gusubirwamwo. Shili yakoresheje neza ubutunzi bw’izuba budasanzwe bufatanijwe n’ububiko bw’ibikorwa vy’ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro n’ugufasha uruja n’uruza rw’amabuye y’agaciro.
Amasoko yo muri Amerika Latini yagumye ari ibice ariko yerekana imifuko y’ibikorwa. Ingamba z’uburimyi buramba za Brezil zatumye habaho amahirwe yo kubika ibintu bitari mu nzira y’ubuhinga bwa none bifatanijwe n’izuba ry’ubuhinga bwa none.
Ibice vy'ikoreshwa bituma habaho iterambere
Ivyiyumviro bitandukanye vy’isoko vyakuze ku rugero rutandukanye, bishingiye ku vyiyumviro bitandukanye vy’agaciro n’intambamyi zo kwemera.
Ubuhinga-Urugero rw'Ubukuru
Ibikorwa vy'urugero rw'ubuhinga-vyari bifise 57% vy'ubushobozi bw'isoko mu 2024 kandi bitegerezwa gushika ku 86% mu 2030. Ivyo bikoresho binini, mu bisanzwe birenze ubushobozi bwa 10 MWh, vyatanga ibikorwa vyo ku rugero rw'uruzitiro -ivyo ubuhinga buto butashobora gukora.
Ivyo guhindukira bija mu migambi minini vyarateye imbere cane. Ivyuma bifise uburebure bwa 101-500 MWh vyafashe 46% vy’ivyo bikoresho vyakoreshejwe mu 2024, ariko imigambi irenga 500 MWh itegerezwa gukura ku 18,2% CAGR gushika mu 2030. Ubuholandi, Shili, Kanada, n’Ubwongereza.
Ivyitegererezo vy’ubutunzi bw’amazi ni vyo vyari vyiganje mu ntango, bikaba vyari 47% vy’ibikoresho vyashizweho mu 2024. Ibikorwa vy’amazi vyahaye agaciro ububiko bw’ishoramari ry’ugutanga amakuru ry’igihe kirekire, ubufatanye bushobora gusubirwamwo, no kwubahiriza inshingano z’ubushobozi. Abahingura amashanyarazi bigenga bararushirije kwinjira mw’isoko, bakwegerewe n’amahirwe y’amahera y’abadandaza mu masoko atagira amategeko.
Ubucuruzi n'inganda
Uruganda rw’ubudandaji n’inganda (C&I) rwari rufise amadolari 3,18 miliyaridi mu 2024, ubushobozi bukaba bushika kuri 2,36 GW/4,86 GWh. Ico gice kizokwiyongera gushika ku madolari 10,88 miliyaridi mu 2030 no ku madolari 21,64 miliyaridi mu 2035-ivyo bikaba bizokwikubita incuro zirenga gatatu mu myaka itandatu.
Ibikorwa vya C&I bisaba gufatanya ibikorwa vyinshi kugira ngo ubutunzi bube bwiza. Gushavura, kugabanya amafaranga y’ugusaba, kwikoresha bishobora gusubirwamwo, n’ububasha bwo gusubiza inyuma bikeneye gukorana kugira ngo umuntu ashobore gushingira intahe ishoramari. Porogaramu ziteye imbere zo gutuma ibikorwa vyinshi bigenda neza zacitse ikintu gihambaye, zituma habaho iterambere rya 20% CAGR mu mice yo gucunga inguvu.
Izuba-plus-ububiko bwagaragaye cane cane ko bukwegera abaguzi ba C&I. Izo sisitemu zatumye hakoreshwa cane ibikoresho bishobora gusubirwamwo mu gihe vyagabanya ukuntu umuntu yizigira uruja n’uruza rw’amazi. Ibibanza vyo gushaja EV vyarushirije gushiramwo ububiko kugira ngo bishobore gucungera ivyipfuzo vy’abantu no kugabanya ibiciro vyo guhuza amashanyarazi.
Iterambere ry'isoko ry'uburaro
Gushiraho ububiko bw’ibintu mu nzu vyihuse mu masoko akoresha cane izuba n’ubutunzi bwiza. Ico gice cakuze ku 19.5% CAGR kuva mu 2024, naho cavuye ku rwego rutoyi kuruta ibikorwa vy'ubuhinga-.
Ubudage bwarongoye ugushirwaho kw’amazu y’uburaro n’ubuhinga burenga miliyoni 2 bwashizweho mu 2025. Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zabonye ugutera imbere kw’abantu, cane cane muri California inyuma y’amahinduka y’ingingo ngenderwako y’ugupima amabateri yatumye ubutunzi bw’amabateri butera imbere. Australiya yagumye ikoresha cane ububiko bw’ibintu mu nzu, ivyo bikaba vyatumwe n’ibiciro vy’amashanyarazi vyinshi be n’izuba ryinshi ryo hejuru y’amazu.
Ibiciro vy’ubuhinga bwa none vyagabanutse bishika ku rugero rwo gushikira bene inzu. Uburyo bwo gukoresha amabateri yo mu nzu bwavuye ku bikoresho vy’agaciro kanini buja ku bikoresho vy’agaciro bihiganwa ku nyungu y’ishoramari. Ivyiza vy’umutekano n’uburyo bworoshe bwo gushiramwo vyagabanyije intambamyi zo kwemera.
Porogaramu z'uruganda rw'amashanyarazi zifunguye agaciro k'inyongera ku bafise ububiko bw'amazu. Abakoraniriza hamwe amabateri yo mu nzu ibihumbi n’ibihumbi kugira ngo batange ibikorwa vy’uruja n’uruza, basangira amafaranga yinjiye n’abaje muri iyo nama. Iyi nzira yatumye ubutunzi bw’imirongo y’ubuhinga butera imbere mu gihe yatanga ibikorwa vy’ubuhinga n’ubushobozi bushobora guhinduka.
Ikoranabuhanga rihindura iterambere ry'isoko
Iterambere ry'ubuhinga bwa shimi bwa bateri n'iterambere ry'ubwubatsi bwa sisitemu vyatumye isoko ry'igihe n'ingene ryemezwa.
Litiyumu-Iyoni z'ubuhinga bwa shimi zihinduka
Ikorabuhanga rya Lithium-ion ryagumye rifise ububasha burengeye ubw’ibindi, rifise 88,6% vy’umugabane w’isoko mu 2024. Muri iki kiciro, harabayeho ihinduka rikomeye mu vy’ubuhinga bwa shimi.
Litiyumu iron phosphate yarongerekanye ishika ku bice 80% vy’ibikoresho bishasha vyashizwe mu 2023, ivuye ku rwego rw’abakeyi imyaka mikeyi imbere y’aho. Abashinwa bakora LFP, batanga ibiciro bito cane vyatuma ubuhinga bwo guhiganwa butagira ubutunzi ku bikorwa vyinshi. Inyungu z’umutekano n’ubuzima buramba bw’ingendo vyakomeje ikibanza ca LFP naho uburemere bw’inguvu bwari buke.
Ivyuma bishingiye kuri Nickel- (NMC na NCA) vyagumyeho mu gukoresha bishira imbere uburemere bw’inguvu. Abahinguzi b’ivyo bikoresho bo mu Buyapani no muri Koreya y’Epfo bari bajejwe ivyo bikoresho, bagatanga amasoko yo mu gihugu no kugabanya ivyipfuzo vyo mu mahanga. Amahane y’ubudandaji n’amakori ku bicuruzwa biva mu Bushinwa vyatumye habaho ivyumba vy’amabateri atari -Abashinwa, mbere n’ibiciro vyinshi.
Ubuhinga bushasha bw'amabateri
Bateri za sodium-ion zari zigereranya ubuhinga bushasha bwo gukoresha ubuhinga bwa shimi, n’uburyo bwa mbere bwo kubika sodium-ion bwatangujwe mu 2024. Abashigikiye iyo bateri bashimikiye ko hariho ubutunzi bwinshi bwa sodium, igiciro gito, n’umutekano mwiza ugereranyije na litiyumu-ion. Abahinga mu vy'ubuhinga bwa none bavuga ko ubushobozi bwo gukora 335 GWh y'iyon za sodium mu mwaka w'2030.
Ariko rero, ugukomeza kugabanya igiciro ca litiyumu-ion vyatumye abantu badakunda cane ubundi buryo. Igihe cose ubuhinga buhanganye bwari bwegereza ubushobozi bwo gucuruza, ibiciro vya litiyumu-ion vyaragabanuka cane, bikaba vyatuma umuntu ashobora kwinjira mw’isoko.
Bateri zigenda zigamije gukoresha igihe kirekire-aho ubutunzi bwa litiyumu -ion bwacitse intege birenze amasaha 4-6 y'igihe co gusohoka. Bateri za Vanadium redox flow zaronse ugukwegwakwegwa ku bikorwa vyihariye, naho urugero rw’uguhingura rwagumye ruri ruto ugereranyije n’urw’i lithium-ion.
Bateri zikomeye-state zakwegereye amadolari arenga miliyari 2 mu bushakashatsi mu 2023, zisezerana uburemere bw’inguvu nyinshi, gucagura vuba, n’umutekano mwiza. Gukoresha ubudandaji vyagumye imyaka kure, ariko ubuhinga bwari bushobora guhungabanya ibikorwa vya EV n’ivy’ibikoresho bihagaze.
Ubufatanye bwa sisitemu buratera imbere
Porogaramu yo gucunga inguvu yaserutse nk'umushoferi w'agaciro gahambaye. Ivyigwa vy'imashini-vyatumye habaho ugutanga amakuru mu migende myinshi y'amafaranga, bifata amahirwe ingamba zo kugenzura zoroheje zabuze. Ubushobozi bwo gusanasana bwagabanyije ibiciro vy'ibikorwa no gutuma habaho ukuboneka neza.
Uburyo bwo guhindura ubushobozi bwarateye imbere cane. Ugutera imbere kw'ubushobozi kwagabanyije ugutakaza inguvu zo kugaruka no kugaruka. Ubushobozi bwo gukora uruzitiro-bwongerewe bwatumye amabateri ashobora gutanga ibikorwa vy'ugutangura vy'umwirabura-no gukora mu buryo bw'izinga, kwagura ibikorwa vy'ikoreshwa birenze ubukemurampaka bw'inguvu z'ishimikiro.
Uburyo bwo kuzimya umuriro no gucungera ubushuhe bwarateye imbere mu kwishura ku bibazo vy’umutekano. Amategeko y’igerageza UL-9540A n’amategeko y’umuriro NFPA-855 vyashizeho ingingo ngenderwako z’umutekano zatumye habaho ukwiyongera kw’ibiciro vyo gushiramwo ariko vyubaka icizigiro ca bose gihambaye kugira ngo bikoreshwe ahantu hose.
Ubwubatsi bw’ibice bwarakunzwe cane cane ku migambi mitoyi. Uburyo bwo gukoresha ibikoresho bwakozwe imbere y'igihe bwagabanyije uburemere bwo gushiramwo n'igihe, bigabanya ibiciro vyoroshe kenshi vyari birenze ibiciro vy'ibikoresho.
Ingorane zibuza gukura
Naho hariho ukwaguka gukomeye, intambamyi zitari nke zatumye urugero rwo gukoresha rudatera imbere kandi zituma haba ukudakeka.
Uguhungabana kw'uruhererekane rw'ibikoresho
Ivyiyumviro birenga 75% vy’amabateri ya litiyumu-ion akoreshwa cane mu Bushinwa, bikaba bitera ingorane z’ivy’ubutunzi n’uguhinduka kw’ibiciro. Intwaro z’Uburengero zabona ko ivyo kwisunga igihugu ari ikibazo c’umutekano w’igihugu, ivyo bikaba vyatumye habaho imigambi yo gukora ibintu mu gihugu vyatuma ibiciro vyiyongera mu gihe gito.
Uruhererekane rw’ugutanga amabuye y’agaciro ruhambaye rwahuye n’ingorane. Ibiciro vya litiyumu, cobalt, na nickel vyarahindutse cane, biva ku 500% mu 2021-2022 gushika ku mpanuka zakurikiyeho. Igiciro kitamenyekana vyatumye amafaranga y’umugambi agorana kandi vyatumye habaho uguhinduka kw’abatsindiye n’abatsinzwe bishingiye ku gihe co kugura aho gushingira ku bushobozi bwo gukora.
Ivyo gutunganya amabuye y’agaciro yitwa graphite vyari bifise ingorane yihariye, Ubushinwa ni bwo bwari bufise ubushobozi bwo gutunganya. Ibiciro vya Amerika ku mabateri y’Abashinwa vyatumye abahinguzi bo mu gihugu bacizigira ibikoresho n’ibihimba vyayo biva hanze, bakoresha amahera menshi.
Ivyerekeye umutekano n'ugutanga uruhusha
Umuriro w’amabateri w’agaciro kanini, harimwo n’ivyabaye mu 2024 mu nzu y’i California, vyatumye abantu barushiriza kurwanya no gusuzuma amategeko. Ibisabwa bishasha vyo gukingira vyarongeyeko amahera n’ugusobanuka kw’imigambi. Amategeko y’igerageza, amategeko y’umuriro, n’ibisabwa kugira ngo umuntu asubire inyuma vyari bitandukanye bivanye n’ububasha, bikaba vyatuma habaho amategeko y’ugukorana n’ibindi vyatuma abantu bagenda buhoro.
Igihe co kwemera caraguwe uko intwaro z’intara zariko zirwana n’ubuhinga butamenyerewe. Hari imiryango yashize mu ngiro de facto moratoria biciye mu bisabwa bikomeye. Ivyerekeye umutekano, naho mu mibare bitari vyinshi ugereranije n'urugero rw'ugushirwaho, vyatumye haba ingorane z'izina bisaba inyishu y'inganda-yose.
Ugushiramwo uruzitiro bigoranye
Guhuza ububiko n’uburyo bwo gutanga no gukwiragiza vyagaragaye ko ari ibintu bigoye kuruta uko vyari bitezwe. Ibisabwa mu vy'ubuhinga biratandukanye n'uwukoresha uruzitiro. Uburyo bwo gucunga umurongo bwatumye habaho ugucerezwa imyaka-mu masoko amwe amwe. Guhuza ibikorwa hagati y’abategura, abakozi b’amazi, n’abakoresha ubuhinga bwa none vyari birimwo abafatanyabikorwa benshi bafise inzego zidahuye.
Ivyiza bikeyi mu masoko y'isoko ry'ubudandaji vyatumye habaho ugutanga amabateri meza. Porogaramu y'isoko ry'igihe nyaco-ishobora gukuraho amabateri kare ku musi bishingiye ku bimenyetso vy'igiciro, bikasiga ubushobozi budahagije ku nsonga z'agaciro kanini-ku mugoroba. Abakoresha barashize mu ngiro uburyo bwo gutorera umuti ingorane nk’ibisabwa vy’amahera makeyi, ariko ingorane z’ishimikiro zo guhingura isoko zarabandanije.
Ugukekeranya kw'ubutunzi n'ingingo mfatirwako
Amategeko ahinduka vuba cane yatumye haba ingorane zo gushora imari mu bikorwa. Ihinduka ry’ingingo ngenderwako y’Ubushinwa muri Ruhuhuma 2025 ryo gukuraho amategeko yo kubika ibintu ryatumye habaho ukudakeka, naho ingaruka nyazo zagumye zitamenyekana uko intara zakomeje gushitsa ibisabwa mu karere.
Ukwiyongera kw'inyungu mu masoko y'amategeko agenga incuro vyatumye ubucuruzi butera imbere. Imigambi ya mbere yari yizigiye cane ibikorwa vy’incuro, ariko ukuzura kw’isoko kwatumye amafaranga yinjira agabanuka. Abakoresha bari bakeneye guteranya imigende myinshi y’amahera, bikongera ugusobanuka n’ingorane zo gushirwa mu ngiro.
Isoko ry'umuyagankuba w'ingero ry'umugambi ryasigaye inyuma y'ubushobozi bw'ubuhinga. Amasoko menshi ntiyari afise uburyo bwo gusubiza inyuma ububiko bw’ibikorwa vyose vyatanzwe. Amategeko y’isoko ry’ubushobozi akenshi yaratera ingorane ububiko bujanye n’uguhingura ubushuhe. Ivugurura ry’inyongera ryatumye ibintu bigenda neza ariko gusubira guhingura isoko mu buryo burambuye vyagumye ari ingorane mu vya politike.
Igihe co kwitega ko uzobandanya gukura
Ivyerekana vyinshi vyerekana ko hariho ukwaguka gukomeye mu myaka cumi iri imbere, naho nyene ibiharuro vy’iterambere bishobora kuba biringaniye ugereranije n’ivyo biheze.
Hafi -Igihe c'Ibitera (2025-2027)
Ivyuma vy’imiyoboro vy’imigambi biteguwe bituma habaho ugukoreshwa gukomeye gushika mu 2027. Amerika ifise 143 GW mu guteza imbere gushika mu 2030, n’ubushobozi buhambaye buzoheza mu 2025-2026. Ubushinwa bushizeho amashanyarazi 106,9 GW, bikaba vyerekana ko buzobandanya kwaguka naho hariho amahinduka mu mategeko.
Porogarama z’amahera za Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, harimwo n’amadolari arenga miliyari 3 zatanzwe mu kwezi kwa Gitugutu 2024 kugira ngo hakorwe amabateri yo mu gihugu, zizofasha mu guteza imbere uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho no kugabanya ibiciro. Ivyo bikoresho bizokura mu mwaka w’2025-2027, bikaba bishobora kwihutisha gukoreshwa.
Ivugurura ry’amategeko agenga ibibazo bijanye n’imiterere y’amasoko ririko rikorwa mu masoko akomeye. Igikorwa kijanye n’Iciciro ca 4 co kubika inguvu n’ugutanga ingufu muri California gishira mu ngiro ivyiza vyo kugira uruhara mw’isoko ry’amabateri. Impinduka nk’izo mu bindi bihugu zikwiye gutuma ubutunzi bw’imigambi butera imbere.
Igihe giciye hagati -Imigenderanire (2027-2030)
Imigambi yo gukoresha inguvu zishobora gusubirwamwo ituma haba ububiko bukomeza. Ubushobozi bwo gusubiramwo ibintu kw’isi yose buzokwiyongera incuro zirenga zibiri mu mwaka w’2030. Gigawatt yose y’ubushobozi bwo gusubiramwo ibintu buhinduka bushizweho iratuma habaho ivyipfuzo vy’ububiko vy’inyongera kugira ngo haboneke ukuntu ibintu bigenda bihinduka.
Igiciro ca bateri kizobandanya kigabanuka, naho nyene kizogabanuka buhoro kurusha imyaka cumi iheze. Ibiciro bitegekanijwe ko bizogabanuka n’ibindi bice 50-66% mu buhinga butandukanye mu mwaka w’2030. Ibiciro bito bizokwagura amasoko ashobora gutorwa kandi bikazana inyungu ku migambi y’inyuma.
Igihe kirekire-ububiko bw'ubuhinga bushobora gutangura gukoreshwa mu buryo bufise insiguro iyo igiciro n'ibikorwa bishitsweko. Porogarama z’infashanyo za Leta zigamije canecane ububiko bw’amasaha 8+ zishobora kwihutisha iki gice, zigatorera umuti ivya nkenerwa ubutunzi bwa litiyumu -ion bugorwa no gushitsa.
Amasoko y’uburaro n’aya C&I azokura cane kuruta urugero rw’ubuhinga- uko ibiciro bigabanuka kandi uburyo bwo gutanga amahera bugenda burakura. Ivyo bice vyatanzwe vyari bigereranya amahirwe atari make, n’ibiharuro vy’ukwemera mu bice vya mbere vy’iterambere ugereranyije n’ugukura kw’urugero rw’ubuhinga-.
Ivyiyumviro vy'igihe kirekire (2030-2035)
Isoko ry’ibintu ryuzuye riguma kure mu turere twinshi. Mbere n’ibintu bikomeye vyo gukoresha bivuga ko ububiko bugereranya agace gatoyi k’ubushobozi bushobora gukenerwa igihe uruvyaro rwose ruzoba rwahindukiye rukaja ku bikoresho bishobora gusubirwamwo. Ikigo mpuzamakungu kijejwe ivy’inguvu giteganya ko ubushobozi bwo kubika inguvu butegerezwa gukura incuro zitandatu-mu mwaka w’2030 kugira ngo hashikwe ku ntego z’ukubura ivyuka bihumanya ikirere.
Ivyo guhungabanya ubuhinga bwa none vyoshobora kwihutisha canke bikagabanya iterambere mu buryo butamenyekana. Ivy’ubuhinga bushasha bwo gukoresha amabateri, ubuhinga bundi bwo kubika, canke ugutera imbere cane mu bijanye n’ugusubiza ivyo umuntu asaba, vyoshobora guhindura ingendo y’uguhiganwa. Ku rundi ruhande, ibibazo vy’umutekano bitari bitezwe canke ukubura ubutunzi vyoshobora gutuma ukwaguka kudatera imbere.
Ugukomeza kwa politike ni kwo kugaragaza ukudakeka gukomeye kuruta ibindi vyose. Infashanyo iramvye ya Leta biciye mu gutanga infashanyo, amategeko, n’ivugurura ry’amasoko vyagaragaye ko ari ngirakamaro gushika n’ubu. Impinduka za politike zigira ico zikoze ku migambi y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere canke politike y’inganda zishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku nzira zo gushirwaho.
Iterambere ry’isoko ry’ububiko kuva mu 2010 gushika ubu rigaragaza ko ugukomeza kwaguka gukomeye bishobora gushika n’imiburiburi mu 2030. Iryo koraniro ryaciye ku nzira zihambaye z’ubutunzi, rishinga intahe y’ibikorwa, kandi ryinjizwa mu migenderanire y’inguvu. Naho umwaka-ku-umwaka ibiharuro vy’iterambere bishobora kugabanuka kuva ku rugero rudasanzwe rwa 2023, ubushobozi bwo kwongerwa bushitse busa n’ubuzokwiyongera cane uko isoko rigenda rirakura kw’isi yose.
Ibintu nyamukuru bigena urugero rw'iterambere muri kazoza
Ibintu vyinshi bizokwerekana nimba ukwaguka kw’isoko kubandanya ku rugero ruriho ubu, kwihuta kurushirije, canke ku rugero ruringaniye.
Ingero z’inguvu zishobora gusubirwamwo zijanye n’ivyo ububiko busaba. Amasoko ashika ku 40-50% y’ubuhinga bushobora gusubirwamwo mu bisanzwe asaba ububiko bwinshi kugira ngo akomeze kwizigirwa. Ibihugu vyinshi vyegereza ivyo bipimo bizotuma habaho ugukomeza gukoresha.
Igiciro ca bateri kiguma ari co gifata ingingo. Iyo litiyumu-ion itwara ibiciro vyinshi imbere y’uko ishika ku rugero rwo mu 2030, iterambere ryoshobora guteba uko imigambi yo ku ruhande iba idafise ubutunzi. Ku rundi ruhande, ugugabanya ibiciro vyihuta canke ubuhinga bushasha bwoshobora kwihutisha kwemerwa birenze ivyo ubu bitegekanijwe.
Gushikama kw’ingingo mfatirwako n’ivugurura ry’imiterere y’isoko bizogira ico bikoze ku cizigiro c’abashoramari. Ugukekeranya kw’amategeko kurabuza gukoresha umutungo naho ubutunzi bushingiyeko bukwegera. Inzego zitomoye kandi ziramvye zishigikira ububiko mu migende myinshi y’agaciro ziremesha ishoramari riramvye.
Ukwaguka kw'ubushobozi bwo gukora ni vyo bigena ukuntu ibikoresho vy'umubiri bibonetse. Uguhingura litiyumu-ion kwarateye imbere cane, ariko kugira ngo ivyipfuzo bibe vyinshi bisaba ko uruganda rukomeza kwubaka. Intambamyi z'ugutanga canke ivy'ugutanga birenze urugero vyoshobora gutuma haba inzinguzingu z'iterambere-bust aho gutuma haba iterambere ridahinduka.
Kwemerwa n’abantu n’ivy’umutekano bizobagirako ingaruka ku kwemerera kworoha. Kugira ngo abantu bose bizigire umutekano wo kubika bituma habaho kwemererwa gutomoye no gushigikirwa n’abanyagihugu. Ku rundi ruhande, ibindi bintu vy’agaciro kanini bishobora gutuma habaho amategeko agenga ivy’ugukoresha ataco bimaze mu vy’ubutunzi.
Isoko ryo kubika inguvu z’amabateri ryinjiye mu gihe c’iterambere ryaryo rikomeye mu ntango z’imyaka ya 2020 inyuma y’imyaka cumi y’ubwubatsi bw’umushinge-. Uguhuza ibiciro bigenda biragabanuka, ukwaguka kw’inguvu zishobora gusubirwamwo, politike zifasha, n’ukwizigirwa kw’ubuhinga bwa none vyatumye habaho iterambere rikomeye ryahinduye ububiko kuva ku gukoresha mu buryo busanzwe gushika ku bikorwa remezo vy’ubuhinga. Ivyo bisa n’ibizobandanya gushika mu mwaka w’2030, aho ibikoresho bishirwaho buri mwaka biva ku masaha mirongo ya gigawatt-bishika ku majana, kandi ishoramari ryose rizoshika ku mamiliyaridi amajana y’amadolari kw’isi yose.