Muububiko bwa bateriintambara ziriko zirashuha. Kandi mu vy’ukuri? Biragenda birushiriza kugorana kumenya uwuriko aratsinda mu vy’ukuri.
Inkuru ya Tesla abantu bose bayivuga
Ntushobora kwandika ivyerekeye ububiko bw’inguvu muri 2024 utatanguye na Tesla. Mubakunde canke mubanke, bararonse ikibanza cabo hejuru y’ikiyago.
Ehe icatumye nkunda cane: Tesla yashizeho 31,4 GWh z’ububiko bw’inguvu umwaka uheze. Ivyo si ikosa ryo kwandika. 31.4 amasaha ya gigawatt{3}}. Up 114% from 2023. Mu gihe ubucuruzi bwabo bw’imodoka bwari buteye amaganya bose (ugushikana ibicuruzwa mu vy’ukuri vyagabanutse ku ncuro ya mbere), igice ca Megapack cariko kiraba mu gacerere imashini y’inyungu nyayo.
Uruganda rwa Lathrop rwo muri California ruriko rurapompa Megapacks ku bushobozi bwose ubu-40 GWh ku mwaka. Shanghai na yo nyene iri kuri internet. Kandi Musk yavuze ko Megafactory ya gatatu izoza, naho atavuze aho izoza. Elon wa kera.
Igishimishije ni inkuru yo ku ruhande. Mu gihe inyungu yose y’imodoka za Tesla iguma igabanuka (igabanuka igera kuri 18,4% umwaka uheze), ububiko bw’inguvu bwashitse kuri 26,2%. Ivyo wongere ubisome. Ubucuruzi bw’amabateri buratuma umuntu aronka amahera menshi kuruta imodoka. Ibihe vy’agahomerabunwa.
Ariko Rindira-Sungrow Niho nyene
Aho ni ho ibintu bica bishimisha. Mugihe abantu bose bariko bararaba Tesla, Sungrow yaraje mu birori aravuga ati: "Hey, natwe turi hano."
Igitigiri ca Wood Mackenzie kiravuga inkuru: Tesla yari ifise 15% vy’isoko ry’isi yose mu 2024. Sungrow? 14%. Ico kinogo cari 4 kw’ijana mu mwaka umwe gusa uheze. None mu bisanzwe ni uguhindura igiceri.
Porofeseri Cao Renxian yatanguye Sungrow mu mwaka w’1997-umwaka umwe na Google, mu vy’ukuri. Mu myaka mirongo, bari "gusa" ishirahamwe ry'abahindura amahinduka. Hanyuma hari ikintu kikanda. Amafaranga yabo yo kubika inguvu yarateye imbere cane ku rugero rwa 127% mu gice ca mbere c’umwaka w’2025, arenga ama inverter ya PV nk’ubucuruzi bwabo nyamukuru ku ncuro ya mbere.
Ivyuka vy’i Buraya birakubwira vyose. Sungrow yava kuri 10% ija kuri 21% y’isoko ry’i Buraya mu mwaka umwe. Bariko barakorana n’abantu bose kuva kuri BBOLT muri Benelux gushika kuri Schouten Energy mu Buholandi. Mu gihe amashirahamwe y’Abanyamerika ahagaritse umutima ku bijanye n’amakori, amashirahamwe y’Abashinwa ni yo ahanini arongora iyo nkuru hakurya y’ikiyaga Atlantique.
CATL: Igihangange Kicereje Kidacereje Cane
Urazi ivyo bimpagarika umutima? Abantu bose bavuga ivya Tesla na Sungrow mu kibanza ca BESS integrator, ariko CATL yicaye aho nk’ishirahamwe ry’ama cellule rihambaye kw’isi kandi nta n’umwe asa n’uwubibona.
Ubuhinga bwabo bwa TENER bwahinduye urukino igihe rwatangura muri Ndamukiza 2024. Zero degradation mu myaka itanu. Reka ivyo bishiremwo. Amabateri menshi aca atakaza ubushobozi ubwo nyene-ivyo ni fizike gusa. CATL mu buryo bumwe canke bundi yarabonye ingene yokoresha "biomimetic SEI" na "ubuhinga bwo kwikoranya" (amajambo yabo, si ayanje) kugira ngo ions za litiyumu zigume zigenda ata bibazo bisanzwe vyo gusenyuka.
Kandi iyo mibare iraguma igwira. TENER yatanguye ku 6,25 MWh ku gikoresho. Hanyuma haza TENER Flex ku bibanza vy’i Buraya bikomeye. Ubu hariho TENER Stack ku 9 MWh-ihagije kugira ngo umuntu ashobore gushaja imodoka 150 zikoresha umuyagankuba canke guha umuyagankuba urugo rwo mu Budagi rwo mu myaka itandatu. Ivuye mu gitereko kimwe.
Mu kwezi kwa 11/2024, CATL yari yarashizeho imigambi irenga 1.700 mu bihugu 40+. Igitigiri c’ukunanirwa kwabo? Urugero rwa PPB. Ivyo ni ibice kuri miliyaridi, ku bagumya amanota. Rolls-Royce iriko irakorana na bo. Fluence iriko irakorana na bo. Tesla iriko irabagura ama cells.
Ikibazo ca BYD
BYD ni ikintu gitangaje. Kandi ivyo ndabivuga mu buryo bwo gushima cane.
Ni vyinshi cane mu Buraya-30% isoko ry'ububiko bw'amazu mu H1 2024. Ivyuma birenga miliyoni vya BatteryBox vyashizweho ata ngorane z'umutekano. EUPD Research yazise izina ry’ibara ry’imbere mu Budagi, Otirishiya, Ububirigi, Ubuholandi, Esipanye, Ubutaliyano, Polonye, n’Ubwongereza.
Ariko ng'iki ikintu: mu vy'ukuri ntibariko barahiganwa mu kibanza kimwe na Tesla na Sungrow ku rugero rw'ubuhinga-. Inkomezi zabo ni iz’uburaro. Urutonde rwa BatteryBox kuva mu 2015. BatteryMax Lite nshasha y’ibikorwa vy’ubudandaji. Grid-scale iriko irakura, nta gukeka, ariko aho siho BYD yashize izina ryayo.
Baciye basinya amasezerano ya 12.5 GWh naho-bivugwa ko ari umugambi munini kuruta iyindi yose kw'isi wo kubika amabateri. Rero kumbure ivyo biriko birahinduka. Na BYD, ibintu vyama bisa n’ibihinduka.
Isoko Nta n'umwe Yabonye Riza
Reka mbabwire ivyerekeye EVE Energy mu segonda imwe.
Ntiwigeze wumva ivyabo? Na bo nyene nta bantu benshi bo hanze y’Ubushinwa bari bafise mu myaka mikeyi iheze. Ubu rero baguma bafata ikibanza ca kabiri kw’isi yose mu bijanye n’ugutuma inguvu zibikwa. Baciye BYD muri 2024. Si mu modoka, biragaragara-mu ma bateri.
CATL ni yo itwara cane. EVE Energy irungika hafi 15 GWh ku kwezi. Hanyuma ufise Hithium, REPT, BYD, na CALB bose barwanira ibibanza vya mbere bisigaye. Amarushanwa ni ay’ubusazi. Ivyiyumviro vy’imigabane y’isoko biri munsi ya 1% bitandukanya ikibanza ca gatatu gushika ku ca gatandatu.
Abahinguzi bo muri Koreya? Samsung SDI na LG Energy Solution zavuye ku mwanya wa gatandatu n’uwa munani mu 2023 zija ku mwanya wa cumi n’uwa cumi n’umwe mu 2024. Amashirahamwe y’abashinwa ntabwo ariko arahiganwa gusa-arariko araganza.
Umukino w'akarere
Ivy’ubutaka birahambaye kuruta uko abantu benshi babibona muri iyo nganda.
Amerika ya ruguru: Tesla ni yo ifise. 39% y’isoko, imbere y’abandi bose. Amashirahamwe y’abashinwa mu vy’ukuri ariko aratakaza ikibanza hano-avuye kuri 23% aja kuri 16% kubera amakori n’ikibazo c’ivya politike. Ivyo IRA isaba mu gihugu navyo nyene ntibiriko birafasha abakinyi bo hanze.
Uburayi: Inkuru itandukanye rwose. Amashirahamwe y'abashinwa yarongerekanye 67% umwaka-ku -umwaka. Bane mu bakinyi 10 ba mbere bo mu Buraya ubu bafise icicaro gikuru mu Bushinwa. Sungrow yarakubye incuro zirenga zibiri umugabane wabo wo mu Buraya.
Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati: Umupaka mushasha. Arabiya Saudite, UAE-bariko bubaka imigambi myinshi cane. Abashinwa bafatanyabikorwa nka Sungrow, BYD, na Huawei ni bo barongoye. Wood Mackenzie yiteze ko 31 GW / 115 GWh zizoshirwaho mu mwaka w'2034.
Aziya-Pasifike: CRRC ni yo ifise ikibanza ca mbere. Amashirahamwe y’abashinwa ni yo agenzura ibice birenga 90% vy’isoko. Nta n’aho biri hafi.
Bimeze gute ivyerekeye ukuvuga neza?
Ikibazo kibereye. Fluence-ishirahamwe rya Siemens-AES-ryari risanzwe ari umukinyi wa mbere mu bihugu bitatu kw'isi yose. Bafise 9.4 GW zikoreshwa mu migambi 225+ mu masoko 47. Uburyo bwa Gridstack Pro. Urubuga rwa porogarama ya Fluence IQ. Ivy’ubuhinga bukomeye.
Ariko umugabane wabo mw’isoko uriko uragabanuka uko umupfunda w’Abashinwa uguma uza. Muri Amerika ya ruguru baracari mu bibanza bitanu vya mbere. Ku isi yose? Bariko barwana kugira ngo bagume bafise akamaro. Iyo sosiyete yahindutse inyungu mu mpera za 2023-ni bwo bwa mbere. Rero hariho icizigiro. Ariko umukazo wo guhiganwa ntuhagarara.
Ihiganwa ry'ubuhinga rigenda ritangaje
Aha niho nkeneye gusohoka gatoyi.
300+ Ah cells zacitse ivy'agaciro mu 2024. Hafi igice c'ibikoresho vyose vyoherezwa ku rugero rw'ubuhinga-ubu birazikoresha. Ariko abahinguzi baramaze gutegura 500+ Ah cells mu gice ca kabiri c’umwaka wa 2025. Igikoresho gishasha ca CATL gifise 587 Ah gishika ku 430 Wh/L y’inguvu.
Ni kubera iki ivyo bihambaye? Utugingo ngengabuzima tunini=amahuzwa make=uburyo bworoshe=ibiciro bito. Inguvu zikomeye ku buringanire bw’ubutaka buraduga 30%. Ibirenge vya station vyagabanutse 20%.
Ivyuma vy’ubuhinga bwa LFP (litiyumu iron phosphate) biriko biratsinda intambara yo kubika ibintu bihagaze. Ni vyiza, birahenda, kandi CATL/BYD yarateye imbere mu gukora ku rugero ata wundi ashobora kugereranya. NMC iracari hafi aho uburemere bw’inguvu buhambaye, ariko inguvu ziragaragara.
Amabateri y'iyon? Ivyo bimenyetso vyarakonjeye. Ibiciro vya LFP vyaguma bigabanuka, maze bukwi na bukwi ikibazo c’ubutunzi c’isodium-ion kirarushiriza kugora gukora. Hariho ibikorwa vy’ubuhinga kumbure. Ariko si ihinduka abantu bari baravuze.
Ukuri kudasanzwe ku bijanye n'umutekano
Umuriro w'amabateri y'urugero rwa Grid-ni gake ariko urasambura iyo ubaye. Ivyo birahambaye kuruta uko abantu bashaka kwemera.
CATL yubatse urubuga rwose rwo kwemeza kugira ngo yigane ivyerekeye umutekano. Igenzura ryabo rikoreshwa na AI-rikora 24/7. Uburyo bwa TENER buhuye n’ingingo ngenderwako za IEEE693 z’imitingito-iz’imitingito y’uburemere bwa 9, inkubi y’umuyaga yo mu rwego rwa 5.
Ivyo BYD ikora vy’ama miliyoni ata mpanuka zigira biratangaje vy’ukuri. Ariko ikintu kimwe gikomeye-coshobora guhindura ukuntu abantu babona ibintu mw'ijoro rimwe. Ivyo inganda zirabizi.
Ni nde mu vy’ukuri atsinda?
Nzoba umunyakuri-Nta n'inyishu yoroshe mbona ikiriho.
Ku bijanye n'ubuhinga-, Tesla ni yo irongoye kw'isi yose ariko Sungrow iriko irabahumekera mw'izosi. CRRC ni yo itwara Aziya. Isoko ririko ricikamwo ibice, ntiriko rifatanya-abakinyi 5 ba mbere bavuye kuri 62% mu 2022 baja kuri 47% mu 2023.
Ku bijanye n’ingingo zibika inguvu, CATL ni yo irongoye neza. EVE Energy ni yo ishinzwe ubwa kabiri. Abandi bose bariko barwanira ibisigazwa.
Ku vyerekeye amazu yo kubamwo, BYD ni yo ifise Uburayi. Powerwall ya Tesla irahambaye muri Amerika no muri Australiya. Enphase na Sonnen barafise ivyicaro vyabo.
Inkuru nyayo si iyo #1. Ni ukuntu isoko ryose ririko rirakura vyihuta-35% muri 2025 gusa, nk’uko bivugwa na BloombergNEF. Hariho umwanya w'abatsinze benshi. Nibura ubu.
Aho Ivyo Vyose Bija
BloombergNEF itegura 220 GW z’ibikoresho vy’amashanyarazi ku mwaka mu 2035. Igitigiri c’iterambere ry’umwaka ry’ibice 14,7% mu myaka cumi izoza. Isoko ry’ububiko bw’amabateri ryo mu Buraya ryonyene ryoshobora gushika ku madolari 87 miliyaridi mu 2033.
Imigambi y'amasaha ya Gigawatt-yahora ari idasanzwe. Ubu ziriko zirakoreshwa muri Arabiya Saudite, Afirika y’Epfo, Ostraliya, Ubuholandi, Shili, Kanada n’Ubwongereza. Umunzane uguma utera isoni.
Abashinwa bazoguma bagwira mu mahanga, bashire amahinguriro mu Buraya kugira ngo bashobore kwirinda intambamyi z’ubudandaji. Politike ya Amerika izoguma igerageza kwubaka uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho vyo mu gihugu. Itegeko ry’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi ryerekeye amabateri ryongerako ibisabwa ku bijanye n’ibirenge vy’umuyagankuba bishobora guhindura uburyo bwo gukura ibintu.
Kandi ahantu kanaka muri California na Shanghai, uruganda rwa gatatu rwa Tesla ruriko rurategurwa. Kuko muri iyo nganda, guhagarara bisigura gusubira inyuma.
Ivyerekeye ububiko bw’inguvu biraguma bihinduka. Ivyo bibanza n’imibare vyerekana amakuru yo mu mwaka w’2024-2025 kandi nta gukeka ko bizohinduka uko isoko rizobandanya kwaguka vyihuta. Kora ubushakashatsi bwawe imbere y’uko ufata ingingo iyo ari yo yose yo gushiramwo amahera canke yo gutanga amasoko.