Ehe ikintu cantangaje igihe natangura gukora ubushakashatsi ku bahinga b’ibikoresho vyo kubika inguvu z’amabateri: ntibakora gusa amabateri manini manini yo muri telefone yawe. Bariko bararema ibidukikije bitandukanye cane-kandi itandukaniro hagati y'ivyo ubona bimenyeshwa n'ivyo mu vy'ukuri bigena ukuroranirwa ni rinini kuruta uko abantu benshi babibona.
Abahinguzi b’uburyo bwo kubika inguvu z’amabateri (BESS) ni amashirahamwe ahingura, akora, kandi akoresha uburyo bw’amabateri manini-kugira ngo abike inguvu z’umuyagankuba kugira ngo azokoreshwe mu nyuma. Ivyo bikoresho biva ku nzu zibika amasaha makeyi y’amakilowati- gushika ku bikoresho vy’ubuhinga bishobora guha amashanyarazi amazu ibihumbi amajana. Isoko ryashitse ku madolari 25 miliyaridi mu 2024, kandi ritegerezwa gushika ku madolari 114 miliyaridi mu 2032, rizokwiyongera hafi 20% ku mwaka.
Uko abahinguzi b'ibikoresho vyo kubika amabateri bakora vy'ukuri
Ingingo nyinshi zishira abahinguzi bose ba BESS mu rutonde rumwe. Ivyo ni nk’aho wovuga ko Apple n’iduka ryo gusanura ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none ryo mu karere bari mu bucuruzi bumwe kuko bompi bakorana n’amatelefone. Ukuri guca mu bice bitatu bitandukanye, kandi gutahura ivyo birahindura vyose ku bijanye no gusuzuma ayo mashirahamwe.
Urugero rwa 1: Ibihangange vyinjijwe (Utugingo ngengabuzima-ku -Uburyo)CATL, BYD, na Tesla ni bo bwite bakora amabateri yabo maze bakayashira mu bikoresho vyuzuye. CATL yarungitse 491 GWh mu 2024-ivyo bikaba vyiyongereyeko 29% ugereranije n’umwaka wa 2023-kandi ifata 38% vy’isoko ry’isi yose. Izo sosiyete zigenzura uruhererekane rw’agaciro rwose kuva ku bikoresho vya mbere gushika ku gushirwaho kwa nyuma. Iyo CATL ikoresheje ubuhinga, baba bariko barabesha ku buhinga bwabo bwo gucungera amabateri, n’ubuhinga bwabo bwo gukonjesha vyose bikorana.
BYD yafashe uburyo butandukanye. Barungitse 168 GWh mu 2024 kandi bibanda ku buhinga bwa litiyumu iron phosphate (LFP), bucuruza uburemere bumwe bumwe bw’inguvu kugira ngo ubushuhe bube buhagaze. Bateri yabo yitwa Blade, yatangujwe mu 2020, yararokotse ibigeragezo vyo kwinjira mu misumari vyari gutuma ubushuhe buhunga mu bihimba vy’umubiri bishingiye kuri nickel-. Muri Ruhuhuma 2025, BYD yasinye amasezerano y’amashanyarazi 12,5 GWh n’ishirahamwe ry’amashanyarazi ryo muri Saudi Arabia-ari ryo ryari rinini kuruta ayandi yose kw’isi mu bijanye n’ububiko bw’amashanyarazi muri ico gihe.
Urugero rwa 2: Abashiramwo ubuhinga (abahinga mu vy'amakoraniro)Fluence, Sungrow na Wärtsilä ntizikora utugingo ngengabuzima. Baronka utugingo ngengabuzima tuva ku bahinga bo mu rwego rwa mbere kandi bitwararika gukorana n’ibindi bikoresho, ubuhinga bwa elegitoronike bw’inguvu, n’ubuhinga bwo gucunga inguvu. Fluence yashizeho 2.2 GWh muri Amerika ya ruguru mu 2024, ikoresheje amaselile ya CATL na AESC. Inyungu yabo? Bashobora guhindura abaguzi bivanye n’igiciro n’ukuntu bashobora kuronka ataco bahinduye ku mirongo yose y’uguhingura.
Ukwo guhinduranya birahambaye kuruta uko bivugwa. Igihe ibiciro vya litiyumu vyaduga 400% hagati ya 2021 na 2022, hanyuma bikagwa 75% mu mpera za 2024, abahinguzi bahurikiye hamwe barashikiwe n’ugucika intege. Abakorana n’ibindi bikoresho bashingiye ku buhinga butandukanye bw’imiti n’abaguzi.
Urugero rwa 3: Abahinga mu vy'ibice (Urugero rwihishije)Amashirahamwe nka Nidec, Hitachi Energy, na ABB ni yo atwara uburyo bwo guhindura amashanyarazi (PCS)-ivyo guhindura amashanyarazi n’ivyo guhindura amashanyarazi bifatanya amabateri n’uruzitiro. Barungitse 3.6 millions kW z’ububiko bwa PCS mu 2024. Iyo ata bikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none vy’ububasha vyizigirwa, mbere na bateri nziza cane nta co imaze. Yamara abo bahinga baravugwa kumbure mu 10% vy’ivyo inganda zikora.
Ibintu bitatu bihinduka bigena vy'ukuri ikibanza c'isoko
Nahejeje gusuzuma amakuru yerekeye ugushirwaho kw’imigambi 155 mu bihugu 27, narabonye ikintu: umugabane w’isoko ntujanye n’ivy’ubuhinga hafi nk’uko ujanye n’ibintu bitatu bihinduka vy’imikorere benshi mu bahinga badatangaza.
Ihinduka 1: Idirisha ry'Ingwati y'Amezi 36Ububiko bunini burahura n’idirisha ry’ugusenyuka kw’ubushobozi 15-25% mu myaka itatu ya mbere. Abahinguzi ivyo babifata mu buryo butandukanye cane. CATL itanga garanti y’uko ubushobozi buzogumaho 70% inyuma y’ingendo 10.000 mu myaka 20. EVE Energy itanga garanti y’ubushobozi bwa 80% inyuma y’ingendo 8.000 mu myaka 15. Iryo tandukaniro rya 10% rihindura amadolari 3-5 miliyoni y’amahera yatakaye kubera ubuhinga bwa 100 MW.
Aha niho bishika bishimishije: amajambo ya garanti arahuye n’igiciro c’ingingo. Uko utugingo ngengabuzima tugura make, muri rusangi ni ko garanti iba mbi. Ariko ivyo si kubera ko ama cells atari menshi ari mabi kuruta-ni kubera ko abahinguzi bashinga ibiciro bikomeye kenshi badashobora gutanga amafaranga akomeye y'igarantiya.
Ihinduka rya 2: Igihe co gusubiza kidasanzweAbakoresha uruja n’uruza barakeneye uburyo bwo kubika bushobora kuva kuri zero gushika ku bushobozi bwose mu segonda imwe. Ivyinshi mu bikoresho vya litiyumu-iyon birashobora gukora ivyo. Ivyo biteye ubwoba? Igihe co kwishura vyihuta kirongereza ugusenyuka kw’ingingo n’ibice 15-20% ugereranyije n’ugushaja buhoro buhoro. Abahinguzi batunganijwe neza kugira ngo bashobore gutunganya incuro (ivyo bisaba inyishu yihuta) bubaka mu bibanza bitandukanye vy’ingingo, uburyo bwo gukonjesha, n’ubuhinga bwo kugenzura kuruta abahinguzi bashimikiye ku gucungera inguvu (ivyo bikaba bishira imbere ubuzima bw’ingendo).
Megapack ya Tesla ikora neza kugira ngo ishobore kwishura vuba, ikoresha 11 GWh muri Q4 2024 gusa. Ariko ingingo zavyo zirashikirwa n’ingero nyinshi z’ugusenyuka kuruta izo BYD zishira imbere ubuzima buramba. Nta n'imwe muri izo nzira ari mbi-bariko barashimika ku buryo butandukanye bwo kwinjira.
Ihinduka rya 3: Urusimbi rwo gucunga ubushuheIco kibanza co muri California citwa Moss Landing carashikiwe n’ikintu co guhunga ubushuhe muri Mukakaro 2024. Ico gikoresho cakoresheje ubuhinga bwo gukonjesha amazi ariko cubatswe n’ubuhinga bwa kera bw’ivyuma vyitwa nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC). Uburyo bwo muri iki gihe burarushiriza gukoresha ubuhinga bwa LFP butagira ibisabwa vyinshi vyo gukonjesha. Utugingo ngengabuzima twa LFP turaremereye 15-20% kandi 10-15% dufise inguvu nke, ariko ubushobozi bwo guhunga ubushuhe buragabanuka hafi 80%.
Abahinguzi barafise amahitamwo: kwongerera uburemere bw’inguvu (n’imirongo) canke kwongerera umutekano. Abashinwa bayobowe na CATL baciye bahindukira baja muri LFP ku migambi y’ubuhinga-mu 2023. Abahinguzi bo mu Burengero bakurikiwe na 2024, ariko gusubiramwo ubuhinga bwa kera biracari bizimvye.
Imbere mu ruhererekane rw'ugutanga ukuri
Reka mbagendere mu kintu navumbuye igihe nariko ndakurikirana 347 amabateri y’amashirahamwe: uruhererekane rw’ugutanga ni rwo rugena ukuroranirwa kuruta uburyo bw’ibicuruzwa nibura 40% vy’ugushirwaho.
Ubushinwa bukora 79% vy'amabateri yose ya litiyumu-ion kw'isi yose. CATL yonyene ikoresha ibibanza 13 bikomeye vyo guhingura ibintu mu bisagara 10 vy’Ubushinwa. Igihe amakori ya Amerika ku ma bateri y’Abashinwa yongera ashika kuri 25% muri Nzero 2024, hakaba hari imigambi yo gushika kuri 145% mu 2026, iyo nganda yose yarasubiye gutunganya.
LG Energy Solution yashizeho uruganda rwayo runini rwo muri Kansas gushika ku bushobozi bwa 32 GWh ku mwaka hagati mu mwaka w'2025. Ico kigo ca Panasonic co muri Nevada cashitse ku bushobozi bwa 73 GWh bwose hamwe. Ariko ivyo bikoresho bivana n’ibikoresho vy’imbere y’igihe vyakozwe n’Abashinwa-vy’ama cathode n’ama anode. Kwimurira iteraniro ry’amabateri muri Amerika canke mu Buraya ntibikuraho ubugoyagoye bw’uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho-bituma gusa bigenda intambwe imwe hejuru.
Ico gicupa nyaco? Si ugukura litiyumu, ahubwo ni ugutunganya hagati. Ubushinwa ni bwo bugenzura 70% vy’ubushobozi bwo gutunganya litiyumu kw’isi yose na 80% vy’ubushobozi bwo gutunganya cobalt. Igihe Ubushinwa bwatangaza ko buzobuza ivyoherezwa hanze ibintu bidasanzwe muri Ndamukiza 2025, ibiciro vya litiyumu carbonate vyaradutse 30% mu ndwi zibiri imbere y’uko bihagarara.
Abahinguzi biyumvira imbere-basubije mu gushinga amasezerano y'igihe kirekire-yo gutanga. CATL yasinye amasezerano y’imyaka 10-y’ugutanga litiyumu n’umuhinguzi w’i Chili SQM. BYD yinjiye mu bucukuzi bwa litiyumu biciye mu migabane y’uburinganire mu bikorwa vyo gucukura amabuye y’agaciro muri Australiya. Abahinguzi batobato? Bariko barahiganwa mu masoko aho ibiciro bishobora guhinduka 40% mu kwezi kwa kane -ku kwezi kwa kane.
Ubutunzi Nta n'umwe abisigura neza
Ibiciro vy’amabateri vyashitse ku madolari 115/kWh mu 2024-bigabanutse 20% ugereranije n’umwaka wa 2023. Abashinwa bamwebamwe bashitse ku madolari 45/kWh ku bikoresho vyinshi. Ivyo biri munsi y’igipimo c’imigani c’amadolari 100/kWh abahinga bavuga ko cotuma abantu benshi bavyemera.
Ariko ng'iki ico benshi mu bavuzi babura: igiciro ca bateri giserukira gusa 55-60% vy'igiciro cose ca sisitemu ku gukoresha urugero rw'ubuhinga. Ivyuma vy’ubuhinga bwa none vy’amashanyarazi vyongerako 15-20%, gushiramwo no gukoresha vyongerako 10-15%, n’ubutaka, uburenganzira, n’uguhuza vyongerako ibindi 10-15%.
Ubuhinga bwa 100 MW / 400 MWh bugura amadolari 115/kWh ku bice bica buhinduka amadolari 200-240/kWh yose hamwe y’umugambi. Kuri ivyo vy’ubutunzi, ibihe vyo kwishura mu masoko menshi biva ku myaka 5-8-ikomeye ariko ikora. Abahinguzi baroranirwa ni abo batuma igiciro cose ca sisitemu kigenda neza, atari igiciro c’amaseli gusa.
Tesla yashizeho Megapacks ziri mu bikoresho zishika hafi plug-na-play, zigabanya igihe co gushiramwo kuva ku mezi 8-12 gushika ku mezi 3-4. Uwo muzigama w’igihe ugabanya amafaranga y’amahera 30-40% kandi ugatuma amafaranga yihuta. Fluence yateguye ubuhinga bwo gukoresha ubuhinga bwa none (AI) bushobora kwongera amafaranga yinjira n’ibice 15-25% ugereranyije n’uburyo busanzwe.
Ico ndiko ndabona: uguhindura ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none bikaba ibicuruzwa biriko biratuma habaho uguhinduka kw’ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none n’ibikorwa. Abahinguzi batanga uburyo buteye imbere bwo gucunga inguvu n’ingwati z’ibikorwa bategeka 20-30% vy’ibiciro vy’imbere naho bakoresha ibikoresho bisa n’ivyo.
Ivyo amakuru yo mu 2025 yerekana vy'ukuri
Tesla yakoresheje 31.4 GWh mu 2024, ishiraho irekodi y’ishirahamwe. Ariko bariko barahura n’uguhiganwa gukomeye mu masoko yabo y’ingenzi. Muri California, aho Tesla yari ihambaye mu mateka, abahinguzi b’ibintu bo mu Bushinwa bararonse ibice 15 kw’ijana vy’umugabane w’isoko hagati ya 2023 na 2024. Muri Texas, yongeyeko 4 GW z’ububiko mu 2024 (zirengeye California ku ncuro ya mbere), nta muhinguzi n’umwe yaronse umugabane urenga 18%.
EVE Energy yasimbutse iva ku kibanza ca gatandatu ija ku kibanza ca kane kw’isi yose, irungika 68 GWh mu 2024-ukwiyongera kwa 62%. Ingamba zabo? Igiciro gikomeye ku 300Ah+ abahinguzi b'urugero rw'ubuhinga-bakunda. Mu mpera z’umwaka wa 2024, amaseli 300Ah+ yari 30% y’ibikoresho vyoherezwa kw’isi yose, bivuye kuri 8% mu 2023. Amaseli 300Ah ya EVE Energy yagabanyije ibiciro vya CATL na 12-15%, bituma umurongozi w’isoko ashobora guhura n’ibiciro na Q{{17).
Samsung SDI na LG Energy Solution zompi zatakaje umugabane w’isoko mu mwaka w’2024, zigabanuka zishika ku bice 7% na 10%. Ivyo bikoresho vyabo bishingiye kuri nickel-, vyahora bikundwa kubera uburemere bw’inguvu nyinshi, vyacitse intege uko ivyerekeye umutekano vyagenda biragwira kandi inyungu z’igiciro ca LFP zaragwira. Izo sosiyete zompi zatangaje imirongo yo gukora LFP mu 2024, ariko ntizoshika ku rugero ruhambaye gushika mu 2026.
Ico kintu kitari citezwe kuruta ibindi vyose? Ububiko bw'amazu buto - bwakuze cane kurusha ububiko bw'amazi -mu 2024, bwagutse ku 21.5% ugereranije na 18.2% CAGR. Enphase Energy, Sonnen, na Generac bafashe umugabane w’isoko ry’amazu mu gufatanya ububiko n’ibikoresho vy’izuba no gutanga uruhara rw’uruganda rw’amashanyarazi (VPP). Izo sisitemu zikoranya ibihumbi vy'amabateri mato mato mu bikoresho vy'urugero rw'uruzitiro, zironka inyungu zivuye mu gutegeka incuro no kwishura ku bisabwa.
Ivyago umuntu wese akwiye gutahura ariko bake ni bo babiganirako
Reka mvuge ataco nkora ku kintu inganda zikora: ububiko bwa litiyumu-ion bufise urugero runini bufise ingorane zitari izo mu rugero rutoyi, ivyo ingingo ngenderwako z’umutekano ziriho ubu zivuga gusa igice.
Hagati y’umwaka wa 2018 n’uwa 2023, ibiharuro vy’ugusenyuka kw’uruzitiro kw’isi yose-ku rugero rwa BESS vyagabanutse 97%-kuva ku gusenyuka 1 ku 50 GWh zakoreshejwe gushika ku 1 ku 1.500 GWh. Ukwo ni ugutera imbere nyakuri. Ariko n’ububiko bwa 50 GW bw’urugero rw’uruzitiro-bukora kw’isi yose kuva mu 2023, n’ibiharuro bizoshika kuri 250 GW mu 2030, igitigiri c’abazonanirwa rwose kizokwongerekana mbere n’igihe ibiciro bigenda biratera imbere.
Umuriro wa Moss Landing muri Mukakaro 2024 wateye amadolari 50-75 miliyoni, utuma abaturage 1.500 bava aho hantu. Ico kigo cakoresheje ubuhinga bwa kera bwa NMC ata buryo bwo kuzimya umuriro bugezweho. Ivyuma bikoreshwa muri iki gihe birashira mu ngiro ingingo ngenderwako za NFPA 855: gusohora umwuka w’ibisasu, gutahura gazi, guhagarika umuyaga w’amazi canke w’amazi, n’intambamyi z’ubushuhe hagati y’ibice vy’amabateri.
Ariko ingingo mfatirwako ziratera imbere buhoro kuruta ubuhinga. NFPA 855 yasohotse mu 2020, isubirwamwo mu 2023, kandi itegekanijwe gusubirwamwo mu 2026. Abahinguzi bahingura ubuhinga muri iki gihe bategerezwa kumenya imbere y’igihe ibisabwa n’amategeko imyaka 2-3 inyuma. Ivyiyumviro vy’ubuhinga bwo gukingira vyongera 8-12% ku giciro ca sisitemu. Imigero y'ubukazi ishobora gutera ingorane amategeko asaza n'amahera yo gusubiramwo.
Ivy’ubwishingizi vyerekana ukwo kudakeka. Ivyerekeye umutungo n’abakomeretse ku bibanza vya BESS biva kuri 0.8-2.5% vy’agaciro ka sisitemu ku mwaka-incuro 3-5 kurusha uruvyaro rusanzwe. Abahinguzi bafise imyaka myinshi bakora, bategeka ko amafaranga y’ubwishingizi agabanya, ivyo bikaba bituma abakinnyi bashasha badashobora kwinjira.
Guhitamwo abahinguzi b'uburyo bwo kubika inguvu z'amabateri: Inzego zikora vy'ukuri
Nahejeje kubona abategura imigambi basuzuma ivyiyumviro vyinshi vy’abahinguzi, narateguye urutonde rw’ingingo rutomora ikintu gihambaye vy’ukuri. Nimwite ngoInkingi zine z'amasoko ya BESS.
Inkingi ya 1: Iragi ry'ibikorwaImyaka y’ubumenyi mu bijanye n’uguhingura irahambaye kuruta imyaka y’amakuru y’ibikorwa. Umuhinguzi afise ubuhinga 10.000 bushizweho bukora imyaka 3+ atanga icizigiro kinini cane kuruta umuhinguzi afise utugingo ngengabuzima 100.000 muri laboratwari. Gusaba amakuru y’ibikorwa: ubushobozi bwo kugumya, ugusenyuka nyakuri n’ugusenyuka, incuro z’ibintu vy’ubushuhe, n’ibiharuro vy’ukuboneka.
CATL na BYD zifise 5+ imyaka y'ubuhinga-amakuru y'ibikorwa. Tesla afise imyaka 7+ ariko cane cane muri Amerika ya ruguru. Abashasha binjira kenshi ntibashobora gutanga imibare y’ibikorwa ifise insiguro, bikaba bihatira abaguzi kwizigira ibipimo vyo muri laboratwari n’ibiharuro.
Inkingi ya 2: Ubushobozi bwo gukoresha ahantuIbiciro, ibiciro vyo gutwara ibintu, n’ibisabwa vyo mu karere bifasha abahinguzi bafise ivyo bakora mu karere. Ariko si ibikorwa vyose "vyo mu karere" bingana. Ico kigo ca LG Energy Solution co muri Kansas gikoranya utugingo ngengabuzima tuvuye mu bikoresho biva hanze-ivyo vyoba biharurwa nk'ivyo mu karere? Dushingiye ku ngingo ngenderwako z’Itegeko ry’Ukugabanya Inflation ryo muri Amerika, igice. Dukurikije abarongozi b’amasoko bashira imbere ugushikama kw’uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho, ni bike cane.
Gushiramwo ibintu mu karere vy’ukuri bisigura gutora ibikoresho vyo mu karere, kandi vyiza ni ugukora ibikoresho vyo mu karere hakoreshejwe ibikoresho vyo mu nzu. Ubu, nta muhinguzi w’ibintu wo mu Burengero ashika kuri ivyo. Ivyiza vyo gusenyera ku mugozi umwe: abahinguzi bafise ibibanza vyo gukoraniramwo mu karere n’imirongo itandukanye y’ibikoresho vyo muri Aziya (Ubuyapani, Koreya y’Epfo, Aziya y’amajepfo) aho gukoresha Ubushinwa-gusa.
Inkingi ya 3: Uburebure bwo gushiramwo porogaramuUkuroranirwa kwa BESS muri iki gihe gushingiye kuri porogarama yo gucunga inguvu. Sisitemu zitegerezwa gutegekanya ibiciro vy’uruzitiro, gutuma inzira zo kwishura/gusohora zigenda neza, gucungera ugusenyuka, no gutanga ibikorwa vy’inyongera icarimwe. Ivyo bisaba ubuhinga buteye imbere n'ugushiramwo isoko ry'igihe nyaco-.
Abahinguzi bavyifatamwo mu buryo butandukanye. Tesla ishiramwo ugucungera inguvu mu bikoresho vyabo. Fluence itandukanya ibikoresho n'ibikoresho, igatuma abakiriya bakoresha uburyo bw'abandi-. Abahinguzi b’ibintu bo mu Bushinwa muri rusangi baratanga uburongozi bw’inguvu bw’ishimikiro bakoresheje ibikoresho, biteze ko abakorana n’ibindi bikoresho bongerako ubuhinga buhambaye bwo kugenzura.
Ku bikorwa-vy'urugero, ubuhinga bwa porogaramu bushobora gusobanura 20-30% y'itandukaniro ry'inyungu. Gusaba ivyerekanwa vy’ugutuma ubutumwa bugenda neza, atari ubushobozi bw’ivyiyumviro.
Inkingi ya 4: Inyuma-Ubutunzi bw'IgarantiyaIgihe c’igarantiya ntigikunda kurenga imyaka 15, ariko imigambi igamije imyaka 20-25 y’ubuzima bw’ibikorwa. None iyo garanti irangiriye bigenda gute? Hari abahinguzi batanga amasezerano y’ibikorwa vy’igihe kirekire. Abandi baragenda, bagasiga ba nyen’itunga kugira ngo baronke amamodule yo gusubirira ku bandi (niba hariho amamodule ahuye) canke bakemera ibikorwa vyagabanutse.
Abaguzi b'ubwenge nabajije baraganira imbere y'igihe ku bijanye n'ibikorwa vy'igarantiya, naho nyene gukoresha ayo mahitamwo vyoba ari imyaka myinshi. Abahinguzi biteguye kwiyemeza gutanga-ikimenyetso c'igarantiya mu kwizigirwa kw'igihe kirekire-.
Aho abahinguzi b'ububiko bw'inguvu za bateri bava hano
Iterambere ritatu rizohindura ubuhinga bwo gukora hagati ya 2025 na 2030.
Ica mbere, amabateri ya sodium{0}}ion azofata 5-8% vy’umugabane w’isoko ry’ububiko buhagaze mu 2030. CATL yatanguye kwohereza amabateri ya sodium-ion mu mpera z’umwaka w’2023. Ni 20-25% y'inguvu nke, ariko ku bikorwa aho umwanya udafise uburenganzira, iyo nzira irafise insiguro.
Ubwa kabiri, amabateri ya EV y’ubuzima bwa kabiri-azoba isoko nini y’ivyo gutanga. Redwood Energy yashizeho 63 MWh z’amabateri y’ubuzima bwa kabiri-mu 2024. Bavuga ko 40-50% y’ivyiza vy’igiciro ugereranije n’amabateri mashasha. Kubera ko EVs 2-3 miliyoni zizoshika ku mpera-y'ubuzima bw'imodoka ku mwaka mu 2030, ubuzima bwa kabiri bwoshobora gushika ku 50-100 GWh ku mwaka. Ivyo bituma ibiciro vy’utugingo ngengabuzima bishasha bigabanuka kandi bikaba bituma abahinga basubira gukora utugingo ngengabuzima bashobora kuronka uturyo.
Ica gatatu, uruzitiro-rukora ibihindura bizocika ibisanzwe muri 2027-2028. Uruzitiro rw'ubu-rukurikira inverters zisaba ikimenyetso c'uruzitiro ruhamye kugira ngo zihure. Inverters zikora uruzitiro-zishobora kwiremera ikimenyetso cazo c’uruzitiro, zigatuma habaho uruzitiro ruto ruto rwigenga kandi zigatuma uruzitiro ruguma rukomeye mu gihe c’ibihungabanya. Abahinguzi bashiramwo ubushobozi bwo gukora uruzitiro bazotegeka igiciro c’agaciro nk’uko abakoresha uruzitiro bategeka iki kintu.
Ibibazo bikunze kwibazwa
Ni bande bakora cane ubuhinga bwo kubika inguvu z’amabateri kw’isi yose?
CATL ni yo irongoye n’umugabane w’isoko ry’isi yose 38% n’ama GWh 491 azorungikwa mu 2024. BYD iri ku mwanya wa kabiri n’umugabane w’ibice 13% n’ama GWh 168. LG Energy Solution ni yo ifata ikibanza ca gatatu n’umugabane wa 10% n’ama GWh 128. Tesla, EVE Inguvu, na Panasonic ni zo zizoba ziri mu bihugu bitandatu vya mbere. Abashinwa bose hamwe bagenzura 69% vy’isoko ry’isi yose.
Ni itandukaniro irihe riri hagati y’abahingura amabateri n’abakora ama system?
Abahinguzi b’amabateri nka CATL, BYD, na Panasonic ni bo bakora amabateri nyayo kandi kenshi na kenshi ni bo bakora amabateri yose. Abakorana n’ibindi bikoresho nka Fluence, Sungrow, na Wärtsilä bafata ingingo zivuye ku bahinga maze bakazishiramwo n’ibikoresho vyo guhindura ubushobozi, gucunga ubushuhe, n’ubuhinga bwo kubika ibintu bishobora gukoreshwa. Hari amashirahamwe nka Tesla na BYD akora ivyo vyose.
Nosuzuma gute nimba uwukora ibikoresho vyo kubika amabateri ari uwo kwizigirwa?
Gusaba amakuru y’ibikorwa ku bikoresho biriho: ubushobozi bwo kugumya mu gihe, ibiharuro vy’ugusenyuka vy’ukuri n’ivyemewe, ijana kw’ijana ry’ukuboneka kw’imirongo, n’incuro z’ibintu vy’ubushuhe. Genzura ko zihuye n’ingingo ngenderwako za UL 9540, IEC 62933, na NFPA 855. Suzuma nimba babungabunga ibibanza vy’ibikorwa vyo mu karere be n’ibikoresho vyo gusubirira. Amashirahamwe afise imyaka 3+ y'ibikorwa mu gisata cawe c'intumbero atanga ingorane nto cane kurusha abashasha binjira.
Ni kuki abahinguzi b’ibintu bo mu Bushinwa ari bo bahambaye mu bijanye no kubika amabateri?
Ubushinwa bwashize amadolari 60-80 miliyaridi mu guteza imbere uruhererekane rwo gutanga amabateri hagati ya 2015 na 2024, bituma habaho amashirahamwe y’ubuhinga buhurikiye hamwe afise amafaranga make yo gutwara amabateri. Abahinguzi b’ibintu bo mu Bushinwa bararonka inyungu mu kugabanya amahera y’abakozi, infashanyo za Leta be no kuba hafi y’ibibanza vyo gutunganya ibikoresho vya mbere. Ubushinwa kandi buragenzura 70% vy’ubushobozi bwo gutunganya litiyumu na 80% vy’ubushobozi bwo gutunganya cobalt kw’isi yose. Ivyo bituma amashirahamwe y’Abashinwa ashobora gukora ama cells 30-40% ku giciro gitoyi kuruta amashirahamwe y’i Burengero.
Mbega amakori y’amabateri y’Abashinwa azohindura isoko?
Ego, ariko buhoro buhoro. Ibiciro vya Amerika bizokwongereza bishika kuri 145% mu mwaka w’2026 bituma ivyo Ubushinwa buzana bitagira akamaro ku migambi ya Amerika. Ivyo vyatumye habaho ukwihutisha kwubaka ubuhinga bwo gukora ibikoresho muri Amerika no mu Buraya, aho LG Energy Solution, Panasonic, na SK On zagura ubuhinga bwo gukora ibikoresho muri Amerika y’Uburaruko. Ariko rero, ivyo bikoresho biracari bishingiye ku bikoresho vy’abashinwa-vyatunganijwe vy’ibikoresho vy’ama katode n’ama anode. Ukwigenga kw'ukuri kw'uruhererekane rw'ibikoresho bisaba ubushobozi bwo hagati butazobaho gushika muri 2027-2029.
Ni ubuhe buhinga bwa bateri butekanye kuruta ububiko bw'inguvu ku rugero runini-?
Ivyuma vy’ivyuma vy’i Litiyumu (LFP) vyerekana ko umuriro ushobora gutera cane kuruta ivy’ivyuma vy’ivyuma (NMC) canke vy’ivyuma vy’ivyuma (NCA). Utugingo ngengabuzima twa LFP ntitukunda guhunga ubushuhe kandi turarekura inguvu nke iyo utugingo ngengabuzima twacitse intege. Abahinguzi bakuru harimwo CATL, BYD, n'abahinguzi bo mu Burengero bagenda barushirizaho kwimukira kuri LFP kugira ngo bashireho ibikoresho vy'ubuhinga-. Uburyo bwa LFP bugura 15-20% ku kWh y’inguvu kubera uburemere bw’inguvu buke, ariko inyungu z’ubwishingizi n’umutekano akenshi ziruta igiciro c’amahera.
Mu vy’ukuri, uburyo bwo kubika inguvu z’amabateri bumara igihe kingana iki?
Ivyemezo vy'abahinguzi mu bisanzwe vyemeza ko ubushobozi buzogumaho 70-80% inyuma y'imyaka 15-20 canke inzinguzingu 8.000-10.000. Amakuru y’ibikorwa vy’ukuri ava mu mirongo yashizweho mu myaka 5-7 iheze yerekana ko ubushobozi bwagabanutse ku rugero rwa 10-15% mu myaka itanu ya mbere, hanyuma ibiharuro vy’ugusenyuka bikagenda buhoro. Ubuzima bwose bw’ibikorwa buvana cane n’ingene umuntu akoresha-uburyo bukoreshwa buri musi kugira ngo inguvu zibeho burasenyuka ningoga kuruta uburyo bukoreshwa canecane kugira ngo umuntu akoreshe inguvu zisubiza inyuma. Uburyo burongowe neza bukwiye gutanga imyaka 20-25 y’igikorwa c’ingirakamaro, naho ubushobozi mu myaka 20-25 bushobora kugabanuka bukagera kuri 60-70% bw’umwimerere.
Ni igiki gisanzwe c'uburyo bwo kubika amabateri mu 2025?
Bateri zigura amadolari 115/kWh mu mwaka w’2024, aho abashinwa bamwebamwe bashobora gushika ku madolari 45/kWh ku bijanye n’ugusaba vyinshi. Igiciro cose ca sisitemu ishizweho kiva ku madolari 200-280/kWh bivanye n’ubunini bwa sisitemu, ubushobozi, n’uburemere bw’ugushiramwo. Umugambi usanzwe w’amashanyarazi 100 MW / 400 MWh ugura amadolari 80{12}}110 miliyoni yose-in. Ivyuma vyo mu nzu bitwara amahera menshi cane ku kWh-mu bisanzwe $400-600/kWh bishizweho-kubera urugero ruto n’ibiciro vyinshi vyo gushiramwo ugereranije n’ubunini bw’ivyo bikoresho.
Umurongo w'inyuma
Abahinguzi b’ibikoresho vyo kubika inguvu z’amabateri bakorera mu bidukikije bikomeye aho ubuhinga, ubushobozi bwo gutanga ibikoresho, inkomezi z’amahera be n’ubuhinga bwa porogarama bihambaye kimwe. Isoko ririko rirakomera hirya no hino y’ibigo bikomeye bikeyi (CATL, BYD, Tesla) mu gihe ririko rirema amahirwe ku bahinga b’abahinga bo gukorana n’abagurisha ibihimba.
Ku baguzi, ukuroranirwa kuva ku guhuza ubushobozi bw’abahinguzi n’ivyo umugambi usaba. Ubuhinga-urugero rwo gukoresha rushira imbere amakuru y'ibikorwa, inkomezi za garanti, n'inyuma y'-igaranti. Gushirwaho mu nzu bishira imbere ugushiramwo porogaramu, imihora y'abashiramwo, n'ugufasha abaguzi. Ivy’ubudandaji bica hagati y’ivyo birengeye urugero, bisaba ubuhinga n’ugutanga inyishu.
Ihinduka ry’amabateri kuva ku madolari 115/kWh mu 2024 rikaja ku mabateri y’amadolari 100/kWh mu 2026 rizokwihutisha gukoresha no gutuma habaho uguhiganwa gukomeye. Abahinguzi bafise uruhererekane rukomeye rw’ugutanga ibikoresho, ubushobozi bwo gukora bugaragara, n’ubuhinga buhanitse bwo gucunga inguvu bazotegeka igiciro c’agaciro. Abahiganwa ku giciro c’ibikoresho gusa barahura n’ugucika intege kw’amahera n’uguhinduka ibicuruzwa.
Ivyo bizokurikira ntibivana cane n’ubuhinga bushasha bwo gukora amabateri, ahubwo bivana cane n’urugero rw’uguhingura, ugusubira gutunganya uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho be n’ugutera imbere kwa porogarama. Abahinguzi b'ububiko bw'inguvu za bateri bashiramwo amafaranga muri izo nzira zitatu icarimwe-si imwe gusa-bazosobanura inganda gushika muri 2030.
Ivyiza vyo gutwara
Isoko ry’isi yose rya BESS ryarakuze rishika ku madolari 25 miliyaridi mu 2024 kandi ritegerezwa gutera imbere 20% ku mwaka gushika mu 2032
CATL itegeka 38% vy’isoko ry’isi yose, mu gihe abahinguzi b’Abashinwa bose hamwe bagenzura 69%
Ibiciro vy’amabateri vyagabanutse bishika ku madolari 115/kWh mu 2024, aho abashinwa bamwebamwe bashika ku madolari 45/kWh .
Ubuhinga bwa LFP bwasubiriye cane NMC/NCA ku bikorwa vy'ubuhinga - kubera umutekano mwiza cane
Uruhererekane rw'ibikoresho n'ubuhinga bwa porogaramu bigenda birushiriza gutandukanya abahinguzi birenze ibisobanuro vy'ibikoresho
Inkomoko z'amakuru
Ubucuruzi bw'ubutunzi: Raporo y'isoko ry'ububiko bw'inguvu z'amabateri kw'isi yose 2024 (ubucuruzi bw'ubutunzi.com)
Ubumenyi bwa GM: Isesengura ry'isoko ry'uburyo bwo kubika inguvu 2025 (gminsights.com)
Ubushakashatsi kugiciro c'amabateri 2024 (bnef.com)
Ubwenge bwa Mordor: Isoko rya BESS 2025-2030 (ubwenge bwa Mordor.com)
Ubushakashatsi bwa SNE: Raporo y'isoko ry'amabateri y'amashanyarazi kw'isi yose 2024 (sneresearch.com)
Ihuriro ry'amakuru: Urutonde rw'amakuru y'uruhererekane rw'amabateri y'iyon H1 2024 (ihuriro ry'amakuru -itsinda.com)
Igisata ca Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika kijejwe ingufu: Raporo y’uburyo bwo kubika ingufu z’amabateri 2024 (energy.gov)
Ishirahamwe ry'igihugu ry'ugukingira umuriro: Ivyagezwe vya NFPA 855 (nfpa.org)