Inzira y'uburyo bwo kubika inguvu za bateri(BESS) igiciro carateye akagere hafi ubuhanuzi bwose bwakozwe mu myaka cumi iheze. Ivyuma vy'amazi vy'ubuhinga bwa none vyahora bigura amadolari 1.400 ku kilowatt -isaha mu 2010 ubu bigurishwa munsi y'amadolari 125/kWh mu masoko menshi y'isi yose -ugusenyuka kw'ibice nka 91% bikomeza kwihuta. Igiciro c’ububiko (LCOS), igipimo gihambaye mu vy’ukuri ku bukungu bw’uruja n’uruza, caragabanutse cane kigera ku madolari 65/MWh mu mpera z’umwaka w’2025 mu masoko yose yo hanze y’Ubushinwa na Amerika. Ivyo ntibikiri ivy’ivyiyumviro. Biriko biraba muri Arabiya Saudite, Ubutaliyano, Ubuhinde-ibibanza bifise amacakubiri aherutse gupfungwa n'imibare y'amasezerano akomeye.
None ibiciro vyoshobora kurushiriza kugabanuka? Hafi y’aho ata gukeka. Ikibazo nyaco ni ingene vyihuta, n’ico gisigaye co gufyonda.
Umwaka wa 40%
2024 yari ubukazi ku bakora amabateri-kandi nziza cane ku baguzi.
Itohoza ry’ibiciro ry’umwaka rya BloombergNEF ryanditse ikintu kitari bwigere kibaho: 40% umwaka-ku-umwaka w’ibiciro vy’ububiko bw’inguvu. Ukwo ni kwo kugabanuka gukomeye kw’umwaka umwe - kuva BNEF itanguye gukurikirana mu 2017. Igitigiri c’isi yose cashitse ku madolari 165/kWh ku buryo bwose bwo gukoresha urufunguzo, kandi ibisubizo bimwebimwe vy’icamunara vyerekana ko abahinguzi ubu bariko barakoresha amadolari 100/kWh mu myaka ibiri izoza n’ibikoresho bizoshika.
Ni igiki cayitwara? Ingabo nyinshi zarahuriye hamwe icarimwe. Ibiciro vya litiyumu carbonate vyagabanutse-bigabanutse 83% ugereranije n’aho vyari vyifashe mu 2022 mu Bushinwa. Ubushobozi bwo gukora ibintu burengeje urugero bwashitse ku rugero rudasanzwe, ubushobozi bwo gukora ibintu bw’Abashinwa bushika kuri 2 TWh ugereranije na 1,2 TWh y’ivyo abantu basaba vy’ukuri. Abahinguzi b'ibice vy'umubiri bariko barakora ivyo abahinga mu vy'ubuhinga bita "involution"-ijambo ry'uruyeri ry'intambara z'ibiciro zishobora gusenya. Ihinduka ry’ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none (300Ah n’ibindi) vyatumye habaho inyungu z’ubushobozi zatumye ibindi vyose bikomera.
Inkuru y’igiciro c’amapaki na yo nyene iratangaje. Itohoza rya BNEF ryo mu 2025 ryasanze amapaki ya litiyumu-ion afise amadolari 108/kWh kw’isi yose, ububiko buhagaze bushika ku madolari 70/kWh-45% munsi ya 2024. Ububiko buhagaze bwa mbere bwacitse igice gihendutse kuruta ibindi vyose.
Chemistry irahambaye kurusha uko wovyiyumvira
LFP yaratsinze.
Amabateri y’icuma ca litiyumu ubu ni yo atwara ububiko buhagaze, kandi ukuduga kwayo ni kwo gusigura vyinshi mu bituma ibiciro vyagabanutse. Birahenda gukora, biratekanye mu bikorwa, kandi ntibisaba cobalt canke nickel-ivyuma bibiri bifise ibiciro bihinduka n'uruhererekane rw'ibikoresho vyihariye. Ubushinwa buragenzura ibice birenga 98% vy’ubushobozi bwo gukora LFP kw’isi yose. Ivyo si ikosa ryo kwandika.
Bateri za NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) ziracariko ziraronka ibikorwa aho uburemere bw'inguvu buhambaye kuruta igiciro c'imbere, ariko imibare irarushiriza gukunda LFP ku migambi y'urugero rw'uruzitiro-. Ibiciro vy’amapaki ya LFP vyaje ku madolari 81/kWh mu 2025 ugereranije n’amadolari 128/kWh ku NMC. Igiciro ca 58% kiragoye gushingira intahe iyo uriko wuzuza umurima ibikoresho.
Isoko ry’ibikoresho vya katode mu Bushinwa rivuga inkuru y’umwiza kuruta, naho nyene. Ubushobozi burengeje urugero-toni miliyoni 4,7 z’ubushobozi ku mwaka ugereranije na toni miliyoni 2,3 z’umusaruro nyawo-vyatumye abahinguzi bagira ibibanza vyo guhomba-imyaka itatu ikurikiranye. Inganda idatanga inyungu ntishobora gushiramwo amahera mu buhinga bushasha. Beijing yarabibonye. Amategeko yo gushora ibintu hanze ku buhinga buteye imbere bwa LFP yatanguye muri uyu mwaka, kandi Leta yahamagaye inama zihutirwa n’abahinguzi bakuru bagerageza guhagarika isiganwa gushika hasi.
Ivyicaro vyo mu karere bitazofunga vuba
Ubutandukane bw’ibiciro hagati y’Ubushinwa n’ahandi hose buracari buteye ubwoba.
Ivyuma vy’ubuhinga vy’abashinwa vyari bifise amadolari 101/kWh mu bushakashatsi bwakozwe na BNEF mu 2024. Amerika yinjiye ku madolari 236/kWh. Uburayi? Amadolari 275/kWh. Ivyo si ututandukaniro dutoduto. Bigereranya ibintu vy’ukuri bitandukanye cane mu vy’ubutunzi ku bategura imigambi.
Kubera iki hariho ikinogo?
Ubushinwa buraronka inyungu mu bijanye n’ugutanga ibikoresho, igiciro c’abakozi gito, amashanyarazi atari menshi, imyaka mirongo y’ugutegura neza ibikorwa, n’urugero rw’ibikorwa ata wundi ashobora kubigereranya. Abashinwa abahinguzi bo mu rwego rwa mbere baratakaza umwimbu mutoyi kandi barakora neza kurusha abahiganwa aho bari hose. Wongereko infashanyo za Leta zafashije mu kwubaka inganda mu myaka, maze ubone amafaranga abahinguzi bo mu Burengero bagorwa no kwegera.
Itegeko ryo kugabanya inflation ntiryapfutse iyo nzira. Imigambi y’amabateri yo muri Amerika iracari yizigiye hafi yose amaselile y’Abashinwa-Ubushakashatsi bwa BNEF bwasanze ata masele akomoka mu gihugu mu makuru yabo yo muri Amerika. Naho amafaranga y’imisoro atashirwa mu biharuro vy’ibiciro, amabateri akozwe n’Abanyamerika-aguma “ari mu rugero rw’igiciro gizimvye cane,” nk’uko umuhinga mu vy’ubuhinga bwa none umwe yabivuze.
Uburayi burashikirwa n’ingorane nk’izo. Amashirahamwe y’Abashinwa, yacitse intege mu gihugu cabo kandi abujijwe kuja mu masoko ya Amerika kubera amakori, yarahindukiye cane mu vyo yohereza hanze mu Buraya afise ingamba zo gushinga ibiciro kugira ngo agumane igitigiri c’ivyo agurisha. Amahiganwa yarakomeye cane, ariko abahinguzi b’i Buraya baracari ntibashobora guhura n’ibiciro vy’Abashinwa.
Aho Amahera Aja Mu Vy'ukuri .
Gusenyura ibiciro vy’amabateri birerekana aho ibindi bigabanywa vyoshobora kuva.
Ubuhinga bwose-urugero BESS rugabanywamwo:
Ibiciro vy'amapaki y'amatelefone (bigabanuka cane)
Uburyo bwo guhindura ubushobozi (PCS)
Uburyo bwo gucunga inguvu (EMS)
Uburinganire bwa sisitemu (BOS)
Gushiramwo n'uguhuza uruzitiro
Ico gice c’umubiri ubwaco carabonye ugucika kw’ibiciro bikomeye. Hasigaye iki? BOS, gushiramwo, n’ibiciro vyoroshe ubu bifise umugabane munini w’amahera yose akoreshwa mu mugambi. Ivyo bice birahura n’inguvu zitandukanye n’ubutunzi bw’urugero rw’ubuhinga. Ibiciro vy’abakozi. Kwemerera ingendo z’igihe. Imirongo y'uguhuza.
Ivyigwa vya NREL vyerekeye ububiko bw’ibintu vy’imbere mu gihe kizoza vyerekanye mu myaka iheze ko ugugabanya ibiciro vy’amapaki vyosumba ibindi bihimba. Ubwo buhanuzi bwarashitse ahanini. Ibindi bigabanya igiciro muri rusangi bizosaba ko habaho ubukene buva ku migenzo yo gushiramwo, uburyo bwo gutegeka, n’uburyo bwo guhuza uruja n’uruza-aho iterambere rikunda kuba buhoro kandi ryiyongera.
Ihinduka ry'ubunini bw'utugingo ngengabuzima
Umushoferi umwe w’igiciro aronka ukwitwararika guhagije: uburebure bw’ingingo z’umubiri.
Abahinguzi b’amabateri bariko barahiganwa kugira ngo bakore amabateri manini-314Ah, 560Ah, amwe mbere manini. Umuti wa Tener wa CATL ushobora gufyonda 6.25MWh mu gitereko c’amafuti 20. Haciye imyaka ibiri gusa, 5MWh yabonwa ko ari ubukazi.
Ni kubera iki ivyo bihambaye?
Utugingo ngengabuzima tunini bisigura utugingo ngengabuzima duke kuri sisitemu. Utugingo ngengabuzima duke bisigura ko hariho amahuzu make, igikorwa gito co gukoranya, ukugabanya ubushuhe, n’ubushobozi bwiza bwo gupima. Sisitemu zikoresha utugingo ngengabuzima 300Ah+ zagenda zihenda nk’ibice 5% kuruta izo zifise utugingo ngengabuzima dutoduto mu gusesangura kwa BNEF. Uko izo nzira zizova ku gutangaza zija ku guhingura abantu benshi, ni ko n’ivyiza biva ku giciro cazo zizorushirizaho.
Ico gikoresho c’amafuti 20 c’amafuti 5MWh carabaye ikintu gisanzwe mu bikoresho vy’ubuhinga bukomeye. Abakinyi bo mu Burengero nka Fluence, Powin, na Wärtsilä bose barahuriye ku bintu bisa n’ivyo inyuma y’aho abahinguzi b’Abashinwa bagaragaje ico ciyumviro. Abahinguzi n’abakoresha ivy’ubutunzi bemeje ESN Premium ko ubuhinga bwo gukoresha uburemere bwinshi ari bwo bwonyene bushobora gukoreshwa mu migambi y’amarushanwa.
Bimeze gute ivyerekeye ubundi buryo?
Sodiyumu-iyoni yaronse ijwi. Bibereye bimwe.
IRENA ivuga ko amabateri y’ivyuma vy’amazi yoshobora gushika ku madolari 40/kWh-igiciro ciza iyo ubuhinga bwo gukora buzoba buteye imbere. Ubushobozi bwo gukora ubu buri hafi y’ama GWh 70 (bwibanze mu Bushinwa, mu bisanzwe), n’ibitegekanijwe kuva kuri 50 GWh gushika ku 600 GWh ku mwaka mu 2030 bivanye n’uwo ubaza. Urutonde rwagutse rwerekana ukudakeka nyakuri.
Iryo koraniro ritanga inyungu mu bushuhe burengeje urugero kandi rikirinda ingorane zijanye n’uruhererekane rw’ugutanga litiyumu. Ariko LFP irabandanya itera imbere. Ico ciyumviro kiguma kigenda. Amashirahamwe akora uburyo bundi bwo gukoresha sodium-ion arahura n’umuhiganwa atazokwicara.
Bateri zigenda, amazi apompa, umuyaga ufunze, ububiko bw'ubushuhe-ubuhinga butandukanye bw'igihe kirekire-busezerana ibiciro bitandukanye ku bikorwa vy'amasaha 8+. Nta n'imwe yashitse ku rugero rwo gukoresha litiyumu-ion. Gukora inyigisho z’imirongo bisaba gukoreshwa. Gutuma umuntu akora bisaba amahera ashobora guhura n’ayandi. Ikibazo c'amagi y'inkoko-ni ukuri.
Turaba imbere (N’ubwitonzi)
Ivyiyumviro vya NREL vyo mu mwaka w’2024 vyerekana ko ibiciro vy’amasaha 4-ivy’ubuhinga bwa litiyumu-ion bishobora kugabanuka n’ibindi 22-47% mu mwaka w’2030 hakurikijwe ivyiyumviro vyo hagati. Ivyo bashaka "biteye imbere" bituma bagabanya 31% mbere n'inyuma y'aho gushika mu 2050.
Ivyo bigereranyo vyasohotse imbere y’uko 2024 igwa 40%. Ibiciro vy'ukuri vyaramaze kugwa munsi y'ivyo vyari vyitezwe mu myaka ibiri gusa iheze. Gutegekanya ibiciro vya bateri vyatumye abategekanya bicisha bugufi incuro nyinshi.
N'ubu. Ivyiyumviro nyamukuru bituma ibiciro bigabanywa-urugero rw'ibikorwa, uguhiganwa, uguteza imbere ubuhinga bwa shimi, ugutuma uburyo bw'ingingo bugenda neza-bigumaho. Ubushobozi burenze urugero bw’Abashinwa nta kimenyetso c’ugutorera umuti. Ico gitero c’ibiciro kirabandanya.
Ni igiki coshobora gutuma ibintu bigenda buhoro? Guhagarika uruhererekane rw’ugutanga. Amakimbirane ya politike y'isi abuza ukwimurira ubuhinga. Intambamyi z'amabuye y'agaciro (naho ubwoba bw'ubukene bwa litiyumu bwaheze vuba). Ibidukikije canke ingingo ngenderwako z’abakozi zituma igiciro c’ibikorwa kiduga. Gushiramwo ibintu bigabanya umukazo wo guhiganwa.
IEA itegura ukundi kugabanya 40% kw’ibiciro vya litiyumu -ion kw’isi yose kuva mu 2023 gushika mu 2030. Inyuma yo kubona iyo nganda ikora neza kurusha ivyo yari yiteze mu myaka cumi n’itanu ikurikiranye, gutera imbere ku bijanye n’ugukomeza kugabanuka bisa n’ibitari vyiza.
Rero, Ego
Inyishu ngufi ku vyerekeye nimba ibiciro vy’amabateri yo kubika inguvu bishobora kugabanywa, ni hafi y’ugutera isoni: birasanzwe biriko biragabanywa, bitangaje, bikomeza, mw’isoko ryose rikomeye. Ibibazo bishimishije biri ahandi.
Ni gute bihendutse bihendutse bihagije kugira ngo umuntu asubire gutunganya ubutunzi bw’uruja n’uruza? Kumbure turi hafi. Ku madolari 65/MWh LCOS, gufatanya amashanyarazi y’izuba n’ububiko bw’amabateri bitanga amashanyarazi yoherezwa ashobora guhangana n’ibindi bikoresho vyinshi vy’ibisigazwa. Isesengura rya Ember rivuga ko kwongera ububiko ku zuba bituma vyose-mu biciro bishika nko ku madolari 76/MWh-bitari bizimvye ku rugero rw’amateka, ariko bihindura ugereranije n’ivyo vyitezwe mu myaka cumi iheze.
Ni gute abahinguzi bo mu Burengero bazohangana n’ivyiza vy’ibiciro vy’Abashinwa? Ntibitomoye. Ibiciro n’ibisabwa vyo mu gihugu biratuma habaho ibiciro vy’ubuhinga, ariko ntibituma haba ubushobozi bwo gukora ibintu bishobora guhangana n’ibindi. Gukorana n’abafatanyabikorwa b’Abashinwa bishobora kuba inzira nziza ku masosiyete adashaka kwemera ingorane zihoraho z’ibiciro.
Ni ryari imbere y’uko ikindi kintu gihungabanya ubukuru bwa litiyumu-ion? Kumbure nta na rimwe kubera ububiko bw’uruzitiro. Kumbure mu myaka cumi izoza. Bateri zikomeye-ziguma zisezerana ivyiza biguma bitashika. Sodium-ion yoshobora gucapura ikibanza. Ariko LFP lithium-ion irafise inguvu, ibikorwa remezo vyo gukora, n’umurongo w’ugutera imbere kw’ibiciro udatezuka ivyo ubundi buryo butegerezwa gutsinda mu buryo bumwe canke bundi mu gihe iguma igenda imanuka.
Inkuru yo kugabanya igiciro ca bateri si iyo kumenya nimba igiciro gishobora kugwa. Ivyo vyaratunganijwe. Ni ukuntu ingaruka zica mu masoko y’inguvu, mu bikorwa vy’ugutanga ibikoresho, mu migenderanire hagati y’ibihugu, no mu bukungu bw’ishimikiro bwo gutanga amashanyarazi kw’isi yose.
Ivyo bicucu biratangura gusa.